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The box office forecast for the May 1st period is only 150 million yuan. Who will save the performance of film and television stocks? | Daily Economic News

Before preparing to raise their eyebrows, movie theaters in many places faced repeated epidemics, and the May 1st stall was finally “dumb fire”.

On the evening of April 29, the Beijing Film Bureau issued the “Notice on Further Doing a Good Job in the Prevention and Control of the Epidemic in Cinemas during the May 1st Holiday”. (April 30 to May 4), cinemas across the city suspend movie screenings.

Image source: Official notice

As of 21:00 on April 29, the professional version of Maoyan showed that among the first-tier cities in the country, the daily box office in Beijing was 266,300 yuan, the daily box office in Guangzhou was 855,900 yuan, and the daily box office in Shenzhen was 1,020,300 yuan. The number is still 0.

“Before there were not so many theaters in Beijing, we estimated that the May 1st box office this year would be about 200 million yuan. If Beijing’s cinemas did not open during the May 1st holiday, it is expected to be 150 million yuan.” Wu Xiuqi, vice president of operations at Lumiere Films In the WeChat interview, she made her schedule box office prediction to the “Daily Economic News” reporter.

According to every reporter’s statistics, starting from 2018, except for 2020, the annual May 1 box office performance has exceeded 1 billion yuan.

Under the repeated epidemics, the film market is difficult. However, judging from the 2021 transcripts handed over by major film and television stocks, popular movies are still an important boost to the performance of listed companies. Ni Shuang, chief analyst of Pacific Securities Media Internet, told the Daily News through WeChat that the epidemic has had a greater impact on film and television stocks. Domestic film and television companies are also doing their best to contribute good works to the audience.

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This year’s May 1st box office is expected to be only 150 million

The May 1st holiday came as promised, but the May 1st stall seemed deserted.

Because of the repeated epidemics, a group of films chose to flee before the May 1st stall.

On April 18, the animated film “Pig Man Movie Ocean Diary” canceled the original plan to be released on April 30 and withdrawn from “May 1st Gear”. Since then, the films “Hello, Brother”, “Prosecutors”, “Hello, Beijing”, “Keep You Safe”, and “Meet You” announced the cancellation of the original release plan. On April 25, the animated films “Awakening of the Mini World” and “I Am Tyrannosaurus Rex” were also withdrawn one after another. According to the statistics of reporters, a total of 8 films have chosen to be withdrawn.

Image source: Official Weibo of the movie “Awakening of the Mini World

Of course, there are still some films that choose to stick to it, or add a new schedule to become a “retrograde”. The professional version of Maoyan shows that from April 30 to May 4, a total of 9 films will be released, including “I Really Hate Long-distance Relationship” starring Ren Min, “Fighting” starring Tan Zhuo and Tian Yu , Mom” ​​and the imported film “Bad Guys”. And “Home at One Point” and “As Long as You Live Better Than Me” and other films are re-screenings.

Wu Xiuqi said frankly in an interview with every reporter: “From the perspective of the cinema, there are many domestic films and imported cartoons scheduled to be released on May 1st, and we also expect to bring audiences back to the cinema through the holidays. Enthusiasm. However, with the repeated epidemics, the number of closed theaters has increased, and the films have been withdrawn one after another. At present, only imported cartoons and individual feature films are left for release, which has limited appeal to the audience. In addition, the imported films released in the previous weeks have been relatively long, so five On the whole, there will be no box office performance that exceeds expectations.”

“Fight, Mom” ​​still photo source: Maoyan Professional Edition

Due to the impact of the epidemic, the level of risk varies across the country. Taking Beijing as an example, on the evening of April 29, the Beijing Film Bureau issued the “Notice on Further Doing a Good Job in the Prevention and Control of the Epidemic in Cinemas during the May 1st Holiday”, stating that according to the current needs of Beijing’s epidemic prevention and control, in order to ensure the safety of Beijing’s epidemic prevention , the “May Day” holiday (April 30 to May 4), the city’s cinemas suspend movie screenings.

However, from a national perspective, the operating rate of theaters has risen for 3 consecutive days. According to Maoyan data, on April 28, the box office was 7.744 million, and there were 6,671 theaters in operation, an increase of 80 from April 27. The national operating rate was 55.39%, and theaters in Wuhan, Wenzhou, Xuzhou and other places resumed work.

In previous years, the May 1st period can be said to be the most important period of the year except for the Spring Festival and National Day. Excluding the closure of movie theaters in 2020 due to the epidemic, since 2018, the annual May 1 box office has remained above 1 billion yuan.

“Before there were not so many cinemas in Beijing, we estimated that the May 1 box office would be about 200 million yuan this year. If Beijing’s cinemas did not open during the May 1 holiday, it was expected to be around 150 million yuan.” Wu Xiuqi said.

The audience’s lost willingness to watch movies is a bigger concern for practitioners. “The release date of films varies greatly, and the quantity supply may be insufficient. If there are no attractive films, the willingness of customers to go to the cinema will be affected. In addition, after the outbreak of the epidemic, the closure of cinemas will also cause customers to lack confidence in watching films. For the audience, it will become a non-essential entertainment. The epidemic has indeed changed the audience’s viewing habits in the past few years.” Wu Xiuqi said that although the theater has been working hard to do marketing activities to attract audiences to return to the theater, the most important thing is The important thing is that when the epidemic situation is under control, the movie theater resumes operations and can provide enough content to make the audience willing to enter the movie theater. “There are not enough films released, or the theater is often closed for a period of time, and no amount of activities will have limited effect. After all, the film is still the core of the customer entering the theater.”

In fact, since the Spring Festival this year, the movie market has been in a tepid state, and the competitive withdrawal of blockbusters has made the next summer season the next “life-saving straw”. “The summer vacation is two months away. If the epidemic is effectively controlled by then, and the theaters can resume business, I expect a good box office.” Wu Xiuqi emphasized, “Although it is difficult now, we still have confidence.”

Popular movies become an important boost to boost performance
China Film and Wanda turned losses, Huayi and Guangguang’s performance “changed face”

Under the repeated epidemics, the film market is difficult. However, judging from the 2021 transcripts handed over by major film and television listed companies, popular movies are still an important boost to the performance of listed companies.

“Domestic film companies mainly rely on film release and box office as their core revenue. High-quality films will inevitably contribute a lot of income and profits to the company. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the current number of films and the box office have declined compared to the past.”4 On March 29, Ni Shuang, chief analyst of Pacific Securities Media Internet, said in an interview with every reporter on WeChat.

The reporter noticed that among the top film and television companies, both China Films and Wanda Films will turn losses into profits in 2021.

Chinese films that participated in many hit films such as “Changjin Lake”, “Hello, Li Huanying” and “My Father and I” will have a net profit of 236 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2021. Turning losses into profits is inseparable from the investment and distribution of popular movies.

Data shows that in 2021, the two major businesses of China’s film creation sector and film distribution will contribute a total of 3.005 billion yuan in revenue, supporting half of the total revenue. During the reporting period, the company produced and put on the market 24 films of various types, with a total box office of 23.96 billion yuan.

Image source: China Film 2021 Annual Report

As a theater chain giant, Wanda Film’s movie viewing business revenue still accounts for more than 50% of its revenue. However, in terms of content, “Detective Chinatown 3” and “Manslaughter 2”, which were invested and controlled by the subsidiary Wanda Film and Television, both achieved good box office results. According to the announcement, in 2021, the operating performance of Wanda Film and Television will increase significantly compared with 2020.

“Manslaughter 2” still photo source: Maoyan Professional Edition

In contrast, Huayi Brothers, which has returned to the film and television business in the past two years and announced profits, has still not been able to turn losses into profits. In 2021, Huayi Brothers will achieve revenue of 1.399 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be -246 million yuan.

In the past year, Huayi Brothers has participated in more than ten films, including many popular films, but the income brought by these films has not been satisfactory.

Every time the reporter noticed, Huayi Brothers, two popular films, “Hello, Li Huanying” and “My Fathers and Me”, both participated in the investment. According to the box office announcement of Huayi Brothers related films, according to the current box office estimates of “Hello, Li Huanying” and “My Father and I”, the company’s operating income from the two films is about 17.08 million yuan to 20.48 million yuan, respectively. 2.09 million to 2.63 million.

According to the financial report, the operating income of Huayi Brothers’ film and television entertainment segment was 1.233 billion yuan, contributing nearly 90% of its revenue, but a decrease of 5.82% compared with the same period last year.

Image source: Huayi Brothers 2021 Annual Report

Enlight Media, which has been evaluated by the industry as “steady and steady”, will change its performance from pre-profit to loss in 2021, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be a loss of 311 million yuan. However, the decline in Enlight Media’s performance was not caused by its main business. The company said that the two partnerships that were mainly invested in adjusted the accounting methods for their investment projects.

According to the financial report, in 2021, Enlight Media’s film and derivative business revenue will be 914 million yuan, contributing nearly 80% of its revenue. The total box office of the films it participated in investment and distribution exceeded 2.8 billion yuan. The company emphasized that “Your Wedding” has achieved a very high return on investment. According to the announcement, Enlight Media’s operating income from the film exceeded 200 million yuan.

Image source: Enlight Media 2021 Annual Report

Ni Shuang believes that the impact of the epidemic on film and television stocks is relatively large, and the overall performance of major film and television listed companies is within expectations. “After all, the global film and television industry is greatly affected by the epidemic, and domestic film and television companies are also doing their best to contribute to the audience. good work”.