The Democratic Party, again lagging behind the people’s power… Women’s votes shaken after Julie’s mural

The approval rating of the Democratic Party of Korea, which was ahead of the people’s power as it entered the presidential primary phase, recently turned back to inferior again. It is interpreted that the effect of former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol’s entry into the party with the power of the people was reflected. After the controversy over the ‘Julie mural’ that contained the unconfirmed suspicions of the private life of the former president’s wife, women’s support for the Democratic Party fell sharply.

Realmeter surveyed 2525 voters aged 18 and over from the 26th to the 30th of last month, commissioned by YTN, and the result of the ‘Weekly Trend of July 4th’ poll released on the 2nd (sampling error is ±2.0% points at 95% confidence level), the Democratic Party The approval rating was 33.6%, which was lower within the margin of error than the people’s support rating (35.2%). The Democratic Party received the support of 36.7% in the 2nd week of July and 35.1% in the 3rd week in the same institution survey, leading the people’s strength (34.9% in the 2nd week of July, 33.7% in the 3rd week), but again fell behind.

The Korean Social Opinion Research Institute (Han Sa-yeon) surveyed 1,013 people 18 years of age or older from the 30th to the 31st of last month at the request of TBS. ) was found to be behind the power of the people (34.9%). In a survey conducted by this institution a week ago, the Democratic Party’s approval rating (34.4%) was higher than the People’s Strength (33.3%).

The reversal of support between the two parties in the 4th week of July seems to be related to the ‘convention effect’. Until the middle of last month, the Democratic Party’s approval ratings increased in line with interest in the presidential election, but while the Democratic Party’s primary election schedule was delayed due to the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the popularity of the Democratic Party’s presidential election increased as the opposition’s powerful presidential candidate, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol, took over the power of the people at the end of last month. see.

The controversy over the ‘Julie mural’ that emerged during this period is also believed to have contributed to the change in approval ratings. In a Realmeter-YTN survey, the Democratic Party’s female approval rating dropped 4.6 percentage points from 38.8% in the 3rd week of July to 34.2% in the 4th week, while the support for women in the People’s Power rose 3.5 percentage points from 27.6% to 31.1% during the same period. In the Hansa-TBS survey, during the same period, the support for women in the Democratic Party decreased by 3.2 percentage points (37.3% → 34.1%), while the support for women in the People’s Power increased by 4.9 percentage points (28.6% → 33.5%). In contrast, the change in the support of the people’s power did not exceed 2 percentage points.

In both surveys, the Democratic Party’s approval rating was higher among women, but after the ‘Julie Mural’, women’s votes were more inclined toward the opposition. It is also pointed out that the Democrats’ passive response also affected the change in approval ratings. At the Supreme Council meeting on the 30th of last month, the Democratic Party raised an opinion that “there is a human rights violation” over the “Julie mural”, but critics were criticized for being one step late in responding.

Bae Cheol-ho, a senior expert at Realmeter, said, “It seems that public opinion that the opposition should protect former President Yoon is growing, and in the passport, opinions that zealous supporters are inappropriate for revealing women’s private life seem to have been combined.”

However, the controversy surrounding the National Power’s ‘defense of misogyny’ in relation to the national archery player Ansan was not reflected in this investigation. For more information, see the website of the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee.