The Ukrainian flag flies on the streets of the village of Vyskopilya in southern Kherson Oblast, which was recaptured by Ukrainian troops on September 27 (local time). 2022.09.27/News1 © AFP=News1 © News1 Correspondent Minsu Kim
As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, major variables that could affect the stalemate situation are emerging.
As the possibility of regime change is mentioned in the US presidential election in November, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that he may start negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, the attention of the community international focus on whether the war of attrition will finally end.
◇ Fading interest from the international community…what is the breakthrough?
Ukraine has been able to wage war for three years thanks to massive support from the West, but the interest of the international community is not as much as before due to the prolongation of the war and the growing war crisis in the Middle East caused by the war in the Belt Gaza.
The war itself also works against Ukraine. The Ukrainian military is exhausted from the war with Russia over the past two years and is suffering from a shortage of manpower as well as ammunition.
The ‘great counteroffensive’ which began ambitiously last summer was thwarted by a solid Russian defense line and passive Western support, and discord among the leadership led to the sacking of a military commander during the war.
Moreover, according to internal opinion polls, the position of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is weakening. Corruption scandals continue, and the reaction of the Ukrainian people to additional coercion is lukewarm.
The West, which has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, is also putting its relationship to the test because the war continues. Even in the United States, the strongest supporter, the public opinion that supports Ukraine has also weakened due to concern about the return of former President Donald Trump to power and opposition from the Republican Party.
Accordingly, there were reports that the United States was revising its strategy to ‘secure a vantage point in the end-of-war negotiations’ rather than ‘complete victory’ in Ukraine.
There is also a general analysis that the future of the war in Ukraine is directly linked to the results of the US presidential election next year. Former President Trump, who is considered a strong Republican candidate for the US presidential election next year, has so far shown a negative stance on supporting Ukraine.
However, there are expectations that an inflection point has been reached as the United States and the European Union (EU) recently reached an agreement on a temporary aid plan for Ukraine, which had been drifting in the middle opposition from some forces.
On the 8th (local time), President Vladimir Putin said in an interview with former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson that was released that day, “Sooner or later, we (Russia-Ukraine) will come to an agreement anyway. ” 2024.02.08/ © Reuters = News 1 © News1 Reporter Park Jae-ha
◇ “Russia has become stronger militarily and politically.”Foreign media and experts generally agree that the situation in Ukraine is going in favor of Russia.
The Economist, a British current affairs weekly, said, “Putin appears to be winning the current war in Ukraine. The reason Putin’s victory seems possible is because victory is not a matter of ‘occupying territory’, but a matter of ‘patience. ‘”
In fact, Putin has seized power by putting Russia on a war footing, and he is filling the insufficient arsenal of weapons from Iran and North Korea.
In addition, the Economist pointed out that Putin has divided the world so that the ‘Global South’, mainly the countries of the Southern Hemisphere, align with the United States, and weaken the confidence of the West that Ukraine can emerge as a democratic country.
The Economist said that if the West had the will to block Putin, it could stifle Russian industry and finance with much stronger measures than now, but the situation works in Putin’s favor due to complacency and a shocking lack of strategic vision.
Experts also pay attention to the situation in Russia, which is in an advantageous position. Barbara Zanchetta, a researcher at King’s College London’s Department of War Studies, said, “Prospects for the end of the war in Ukraine remain bleak. Compared to this time last year, Putin has become stronger militarily and politically.”
He analyzed, “The situation on the battlefield is still uncertain. It seems that the Ukrainian winter offensive has ended, but Russia also does not see any breakthrough. More than ever, the outcome of the war will depends on the political decisions made by the US and the EU.”
On the 20th (local time), soldiers from the Russian mercenary company Wagner Group wave flags and banners on the roof of a destroyed building in Bakhmut, Ukraine, cheering the occupation. © AFP=News1 © News Reporter1 Woo Dong-myeong
◇ “The war could be over in a few weeks.”…Putin’s ‘confidence’
In a recently released interview with former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson, President Putin said, “If you really want to stop the war, you have to stop supplying weapons (to Ukraine). If do that, the war will be over in a few weeks.”
At the same time, he said it was impossible for Russia to lose the war with Ukraine and told the United States, “Wouldn’t it be better to negotiate with Russia?” He also stressed that Russia has no intention of rejecting negotiations with Ukraine.
Until now, President Putin has shown a hard stance regarding the war in Ukraine, saying that he will ‘go to the end’, but in today’s interview, he sent an unusually conciliatory message that he could discuss first.
If Ukraine accepts Russia’s offer, it will have to give up part of its territory occupied by Russia.
Russia currently occupies around 18% of Ukraine’s territory, and President Putin has said he is willing to compromise if he can keep it as it is.
However, Ukraine is very likely to reject such a peace agreement unless there is a change in the US position.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, has repeatedly expressed his stance that Ukraine will never cede its territory to Russia and will regain it until the end. However, it is not clear how long Ukraine can endure.
US President Joe Biden held a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House in Washington on the 9th (local time) and said, “The failure of the US Congress and abandonment of support for Ukraine is close to a crime. It’ n something to be angry about.” 2024.2.11 © AFP =News1 © News Reporter1 Woo Dong-myeong
yoonge@newyddion1.kr
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