Look at the opportunity for “Electricity bill installment 3” to be at risk of being expensive as the baht weakens past 37 baht / dollar Keep an eye on the war between Israel and Iran The Energy Regulatory Commission prepares a contingency plan for the import of LNG.
Date: 23 April 2024 Mr Khomkrit Tantrawanit Secretary General of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) told “Prachachat Turakij” that the exchange rate, where the baht depreciated to 37 baht per 1 US dollar yesterday (22 April), was a factor of it is very much a must watch
This is because Thailand buys fuel using US dollars. Therefore, the weakening of the baht will affect the trading prices of all types of natural gas, both in the short and long term. It also affects some power plants that need dollars as well. But how much is affected? It must be used as information for calculating the Variable Electricity Tariff (FT) for the 3rd installment (September-December) 2024.
Although the problem of unrest in Asia and the Middle East Especially as the conflict began to expand from Israel-Hamas to Israel-Iran. Even in the short term, natural gas (LNG) imports will not be affected because there are still large reserves.
Moreover, Qatar, which has a long-term natural gas trading contract with Thailand, can continue to ship gas as usual. There was no delay. or have any transport routes in the Persian Gulf area been closed?
Khomkrit Tantrawanit Mr Secretary General Office of the Energy Regulatory Commission
As for the LNG spot price (short-term trading), it has not increased as sharply as the price of oil. However, it depends on the situation whether there will be more or less violence. The situation must be closely monitored.
“If the situation becomes more serious to the point of closing the Persian Gulf. We also have other reserves where we can buy natural gas. Currently, the Erawan field in the Gulf of Thailand is capable of fully producing natural gas at 800 million cubic feet. This makes us less dependent on natural gas imports. This part is considered a buffer.”
The Energy Regulatory Commission previously predicted in February 2024 that Thailand would have an LNG demand of 100 ships in 2024, or an increase from last year when it used 90 ships, which calculated an average amount imported of 60,000 per ship, which is a total of 6 million tonnes, which does not include the amount allowed for LNG Shippers (all importers, each of whom intends to import for use in power plants or to support your own customers who may not have u import according to the reported figures because it depends on the actual needs of each person)
For the calculation of electricity costs in the second installment of 2018, although the amount of natural gas imported from Myanmar has decreased lower than before, from 700-800 million cubic feet to 500 million cubic feet. But positive factors were received by the company. PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited or PTTEP is moving forward with the G1/61 project (Erawan field) which can produce natural gas from the Gulf of Thailand up to the level of 800 million cubic feet per day as targeted.
After this, it is still necessary to follow the situation of LNG imports in the next order. Will it be in a positive or negative direction?
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