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- Reporter, Holly Hondrich
- Correspondent, BBC News
- Reporting from Washington
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28 minutes ago
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who had struggled in the primary for the past few weeks, left a warning to her former opponent, former President Donald Trump, on the 6th (local time) and finally announced her withdrawal from the US Republican presidential primary.
In her resignation speech, Candidate Haley said, “Now it’s up to Trump to win the votes of those who don’t support the Republican Party,” hesitating for a moment, then concluded, “I’ n hope Trump can do it.”
Candidate Haley’s resignation effectively signals the start of this year’s election, and a repeat of Trump’s battle against Biden four years ago seems almost certain.
And now attention turns to an important new question in the presidential election. Where will the votes of candidate Haley’s supporters go?
The coalition of anti-Trump and moderate groups within the Republican Party, led by former South Carolina Governor Haley, was not enough to stop Trump. Trump has already secured back-to-back victories on Super Tuesday, further cementing his position as the Republican candidate.
But Haley’s base of moderate, college-educated suburban voters has led her to two primary victories and she now has even more power.
This is a group that has historically proven its influence in presidential elections, and experts explain that they must capture the votes of voters who supported candidate Haley in order to become president again.
Republican strategist Kevin Madden said, “These are the forces that decided the outcome of this election.”
And Trump and Biden know this. As soon as candidate Haley announced her resignation on the 6th, both candidates immediately issued statements and appealed for support.
But the methods were different. First, current President Biden congratulated candidate Haley and emphasized that they had something in common while persuading Haley’s supporters directly, saying, “There is a place for you in my campaign camp.”
Instead of acknowledging Haley’s candidacy, former President Trump tried to attract her supporters by saying, “Please participate in the greatest movement in American history.”
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Experts largely divide Haley’s supporters into three categories: anti-Trump supporters, moderates, and loyal supporters of the Republican Party.
Among them, the direction of the anti-Trump faction is a little clearer. Anyway, Trump’s position is that it can’t be done.
Throughout the primary, they expressed their support for candidate Haley through media interviews by expressing their disapproval of former President Trump.
Holt Moran, a South Carolina Republican who supported Haley and left the party when Trump was nominated as the Republican primary candidate in 2016, criticized Trump as “a cancer to the Republican Party” and said, “He’s simply a disaster for America .” he did
During the election campaign, most of these anti-Trump voters pointed to the huge legal problems facing Trump instead of talking about the candidacy itself, or expressing their contempt for democracy by expressing the 2021 riot at the Capitol the United States and express their contempt for democracy from Trump. show support.
In fact, few people actually thought that Haley could surpass Trump, but they still voted for her. Experts interpreted this as a sign of protest, showing the depth of their hostility towards former President Trump.
These anti-Trump voters are the basis for the Democratic Party’s optimistic outlook.
Simon Rosenberg, a veteran Democratic strategist, said some polls in early voting states showed a “significant majority” of Haley supporters planning to vote for President Biden.
In North Carolina, for example, only 21% of those who voted for Haley said they would vote for the eventual Republican nominee “no matter who it is.”
Rosenberg said the findings were a “very bright red light” for the Republican Party, adding, “The Republican Party is divided… “Candidate Haley shows that this division is real and serious, ” he said.
But so far, it seems that candidate Trump and his supporters are not making any serious effort to attract Haley voters.
Instead, former President Trump poured more and more personal attacks on candidate Haley through speeches and interviews.
Even after Haley resigned, former President Trump made no gestures of reconciliation. Instead, candidate Haley was “completely defeated… He mocked his defeat, saying, “This is record-breaking fashion,” and sent only a lukewarm invitation to Haley’s supporters to rally for her.
Rosenberg said Trump’s actions were “extremely foolish” politically and that “the Republican Party cannot win this presidential election without complete internal unity.”
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picture explanation,
Former President Trump maintains a strong base of support within the Republican Party.
However, there are some who believe that just because Haley’s supporters in the Republican Party don’t like Trump, they can’t be guaranteed to vote for Biden in November. The explanation is that partisan bonds are not so easily broken.
“It’s not common for partisan ties to break down,” said Kate Maeder, a Democratic strategist. “Because our politics today is like tribal warfare. So, even among moderates, very few people can be persuaded to the other side,” he noted.
The same was true of past rivals within the main political parties. Very few openly betrayed the party.
In 2008, shortly after Hillary Clinton lost the Democratic presidential nomination to Barack Obama, nearly a third of Clinton supporters said they would prefer to vote for Republican candidate John McCain. However, when election day arrived, 82% of Clinton supporters chose Obama.
Candidate Haley made increasingly sharp and personal attacks on Trump, but still maintained the position that current President Biden is the more dangerous candidate. Therefore, he left room to say that he maintains his loyalty to the Republican Party regardless of who becomes the candidate.
Republican strategist Whit Ayers pointed out that President Biden’s political weaknesses will also have an impact.
“A lot of Haley’s supporters don’t want Biden,” Ayers said, explaining that support for Biden’s performance is low and concerns are growing that Biden is too old to run.
Some of Haley’s supporters have also voiced this opinion in interviews over the past few months. He said he wants to move away from Trump, but doesn’t know if he will vote for Biden, who is weak on border immigration and has poor economic policies.
Tim Ferguson, a lifelong Republican who supported Haley this time, said, “For years, we’ve had to choose the lesser evil.”
“I can’t vote for Biden,” Ferguson said. “I will vote for Trump again.” And it won’t feel as good as last time,” he added.
This discontent is common among the Republican base.
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According to a poll conducted by Morning Consult last month, 19% of American voters are “dual haters” who are dissatisfied with Trump and Biden.
Some analysts suspect that this apathy could lead to many voters not showing up to the polls at all.
Madden said, “(Biden vs. Trump) is a rematch that nobody wanted,” and noted that “voters may want to stay home (rather than go to the polls).”
Many factors, including changes in the US domestic economy, situations in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip, and embarrassing mistakes by Trump or Biden, can sway the hearts of moderate voters.
And the outlook is getting more complicated as former President Trump faces a number of legal challenges. Polls suggest that some Republican supporters will turn away if Trump is convicted in four criminal cases.
Jim Sullivan, a Republican from Indiana, said he would not betray his party for Biden, but still had not made a decision. Sullivan, a true double hater, hates Trump too, but sees no choice. The explanation is, “We are currently struggling with this situation.”
With eight months remaining until the rematch between Biden and Trump, experts say it is still too early to tell where the votes of voters like Sullivan will go.
“All these questions are going to be very competitive,” Madden said, “The only answer we can give is we don’t know yet.”
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