2024-04-29 10:42 Xu Zixuan United News Network Since Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran and Israel have been in a state of open hostility. The picture shows Iran, Germany and Iran…
Iran and Israel have been in a state of open hostility since Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979. Tehran often uses proxies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthi armed forces to attack Israel After decades of proxy wars, Iraq and Israel are a new period of direct conflict has finally begun. In mid-April 2024, Iran launched 170 drones, more than 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles at Israel (a total of more than 300 attacks Israel cooperated with Western and regional allies to intercept most of the offenses successfully). There were almost no injuries.
Soon after, Israel launched a counterattack. According to media reports, there have been explosions at the airport in Isfahan province in Iran and at the Natanz nuclear military facility in the province Iranian officials have claimed to have shot down several Israeli drones without causing casualties. Israel’s action could blow up the radar of the S-300 air defense system at the Natanz nuclear facility and is also a warning from Israel to Iran’s nuclear program.
In fact, in the past, Israel managed to avoid attacking Iran directly, but spared no effort to fight Iran’s nuclear program, such as murdering many nuclear scientists, launching multiple cyber attacks, and even blowing up nuclear facilities to up Therefore, after the Israeli attack, the Iranian military emphasized that it already knew information about the nuclear facilities of the “Zionist enemy”.
After a round of bombing, Israel and Iran are still making harsh words from afar, but it is not difficult to see that they have no intention of continuing to escalate avoiding the intervention of the United States and other major powers to worsen the situation Even harder to clean. Although both sides have exercised restraint and avoided an all-out war, this crisis has brought the war situation in the Middle East to a new stage, which may result in the shadow of a nuclear conflict.
Iranian state television reported an explosion in the city of Isfahan on April 19, 2024. Photo / European News Agency On April 24, 2024, Israeli military personnel examined the Iranian bomb that fell on an open field near the southern city of Arad…
▌ Israel’s nuclear weapons capabilities
First of all, as in the case of Israel, it is currently the only nuclear armed country in the Middle East. Due to several wars with Arab countries in the last century, Israel decided to develop nuclear weapons to counter the numerical superiority of Arab countries. her survival. It is estimated that Israel has 90 nuclear weapons and stores plutonium capable of producing hundreds of nuclear bombs not complying with the general strategic logic of nuclear weapons as a deterrent to adversaries.
Commentators believe that this could be due to the special situation of the Cold War. For the Nixon administration in the United States before and after Israel developed nuclear weapons, Israel’s survival was important, but Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons was not in the national interest of the United States, because on the one hand, the United States was cooperated with the Soviet Union to promote the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), unwilling to let Israel promote its nuclear weapons and undermine the treaty’s legitimacy; on the one hand, the United States is also worried that Israel’s nuclear weapons will prompt the Soviet Union to help Arab countries acquire nuclear weapons, exacerbating regional instability.
Although the Nixon administration expressed its opposition to Israel’s nuclear program, it was too late to stop it completely So, Kissinger reached a secret agreement with Israel, requiring Israel not to conduct any public nuclear tests or declare its nuclear weapons, to avoid triggering a nuclear crisis. In this case, the United States would continue to provide military and diplomatic assistance to Israel without violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a principle that subsequent administrations generally follow.
An anti-Israel billboard on the streets of Tehran features a picture of an Iranian missile and the words “Israel …” in Farsi.
▌Iran’s nuclear stockpile
This situation continued for decades, until it was revealed that Iran was developing a nuclear program, and Israel finally had to face its mortal enemy with the power to destroy itself. According to a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has enough enriched uranium to make three atomic bombs, with a purity of up to 60%. off 90% weapon grade.
There are several reasons why Iran has not yet formally built nuclear weapons. One is due to religious restrictions For example, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei once said that manufacturing and storing nuclear bombs is not in accordance with Islamic teachings. Next, Iran hopes to gain benefits from negotiations with the US and others through North Korea’s nuclear blackmail.
But these conditions are not permanent. Khamenei is already old. And while Iran does not appear to need nuclear weapons immediately, the increasingly authoritarian regime will make it more difficult for Iran to reach an agreement with the U.S. Conversely, it will prompt the military to acquisition of nuclear weapons.
The US think tank “Arms Control Association” also pointed out that Iran’s nuclear program has gradually matured at best the US and Israel can slow Iran’s ability to build nuclear weapons, but they cannot eliminate it completely through military action . After Israel previously bombed the Natanz nuclear facility, Iran is said to have strengthened its defenses and built tunnels to prevent airstrikes. .
Of course, the Israeli war cabinet can use the pretext of national survival to launch an attack on Iran to destroy its nuclear stockpile after solving the Hamas problem. However, Iran is no match for Hamas in terms of military strength or territory. allies like Allah The Party stands by, ready to attack Israel at any time.
Therefore, Israel has no options what it really has to worry about is not whether and when Iran can build nuclear weapons, but how to achieve a balance with Iran’s nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future. Just like the India-Pakistan nuclear conflict, it seems to have reduced the possibility of a full-scale or large-scale war, because both sides logically understand that once the conflict escalates, that they will face nuclear doomsday.
Israel’s air defense system became active after Iran fired drones and missiles at Israel. Photo / Reuters Until it was revealed that Iran was developing a nuclear program, Israel finally had to face its mortal enemy with the power to destroy itself. The picture shows Iran…
▌Nuclear weapons are valuable only if they serve as a deterrent
Under this premise, Israel no longer needs to hide its possession of nuclear weapons. For example, when Israeli officials previously said that they would use nuclear weapons to eliminate Hamas in the Gaza Strip, it was a very ridiculous statement. This means that the country’s top leaders do not have a proper understanding of nuclear weapons, so they have terrorist-like thoughts.
For nuclear weapons to be considered an effective deterrent, there must be capability and readiness. Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons is an open secret, which can make opponents feel insecure and afraid, so that they dare not take risks. It does not have the ability to eliminate Israel, but if a major country like Iran launches an attack, the situation will become different.
If a conventional arms conflict breaks out between the two sides, such as this minor exchange of missiles, it should not be a condition for nuclear retaliation However, if Iran launches a full-scale war and targets civilians and military targets, the use of nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out. Israel is very likely to strike first, because in the event of a full-scale war, Israel lacks the strategic depth to use nuclear weapons as well. It is better to strike first.
In addition, for deterrence to be effective, it must have persuasive capabilities, because if Iran suddenly wins the war or uses nuclear weapons first, Israel’s nuclear weapons will be useless, and it must Israel can stop the scale of “second strikes”. For example, Israel’s INS Drakon submarine, launched last year, is considered to have submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) capabilities, but it is unclear whether it has nuclear warheads.
Finally, by formulating a clear nuclear strategy, Israel can fully express the timing and readiness to use nuclear weapons, and at the same time prepare sufficient counter-attack capabilities, which is equivalent to drawing a red line for its opponents. But this is only an ideal state assuming both parties are rational. In fact, there is still the possibility of a miscalculation For example, if Iran revolutionizes again and the army takes power, this possibility makes Israel feel uneasy, or the influence of others. factors, such as computers predicting opponents of Missile Paths, etc., and vice versa, the same is true of Iran looking at Israel.
Therefore, if Israel and Iran face a nuclear conflict in the future, both sides cannot still abandon public (and private) communication channels in order to compensate for the limits of rationality. To put it bluntly, nuclear weapons are only valuable if they are preventive God or the history of a thousand years, It will all become meaningless.
Nuclear weapons are only valuable if they are used as deterrents, there will be no so-called victory Even if one survives, face…
Editor/Lai Yun
Xu Zixuan
amor fati, I feel that impulsiveness is a virtue that is indispensable for everyone at least once in a lifetime; ▎FB: China at 37 ° C. ▎Vlog: Robinson.
Detailed column Israel Middle East and North Africa
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