The official helping hand is here? The price of pigs in peak season has almost been “cut in half” and the pressure from the supply and demand game still exists. Finance Associated Press industry dynamics provider

Financial Associated Press, January 14th (Reporter Wang Pingan and Zhang Chenjing)“The price of pigs in 2022 will be very strange. The price will rise rapidly in the off-season, but it will fall below the cost line in the peak season. After the roller coaster ride “This, the pig farmers are still making a lot of money.” A front-line person recently told the Financial Associated Press.

Recently, due to the demand for the Spring Festival and the stimulation of low price pork, the slaughter volume has increased significantly. At the same time, returning home during the Spring Festival has driven regional consumption, and the progress has been evident in the Today, the National Development and Reform Commission recommends that slaughterhouses increase commercial inventory appropriately and promote market demand. Reporters from the Financial Associated Press learned from multiple interviews that the slaughter volume is expected to peak next week, but most farmers have a strong willingness to slaughter, and the pace of slaughter is accelerating. The season pressure short on hog prices still exists under a supply and demand game.

The rapid fall in pig prices and the National Development and Reform Commission suggest that slaughterhouses are increasing their inventory appropriately

Going into the peak season for eating live pigs, the price of pigs has rarely fallen. In the last three months, the price of pigs has almost been “cut in half”.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of three yuan live pigs in the first ten days of January 2023 fell by 10.7% from the previous month. On January 9, according to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, between January 3 and January 6, the national average hog grain price ratio was 5.93:1, entering the three-term warning period of excessive decline.

In response to the low price of live pigs, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized some large-scale pig slaughter companies to hold a meeting to analyze the supply and demand situation and the price of the live pig market in detail. On January 14, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a message, recommending that slaughter companies increase commercial inventory appropriately, promote market demand, and promote the price of live pigs to rise back to a reasonable range as soon as possible.

However, with the coming of the Spring Festival, the number of killings of the killing enterprises has increased significantly. According to data from Yongyi Consulting, the average slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises this week was 240,749 head per day, an increase of 25.63% from last week.

(Source: Yongyi Consulting) Zheng Lili, general manager of Yongyi Consulting, told a reporter from the Financial Associated Press: “Having reached the middle of the twelfth lunar month, consumer demand has increased, and the mood for stocking the new year has increased. Although the sharp fluctuations in the price of pork strips in the middle of the week have a certain impact on orders, However, the impact of the peak eating season still exists, supporting slaughter companies to maintain high slaughter numbers.”

Zhang Long, general manager of live pig futures supply from Jiangsu Linfanke Industrial Co, Ltd, told the reporter of the Financial Associated Press that the increase in slaughterhouses is very obvious A large slaughterhouse nearby has reached 6,000 pigs in the past two days , and about 2,000-3,000 pigs at the end of December, head left and right. Before 2022, there will be around 4,000 heads. And looking at the plan today, we will continue to pick it up, but there is no plan to go into the warehouse, and all of them are fresh products.

Pig prices remain under pressure due to increased supply and demand

It is worth noting that due to the low hog prices and the arrival of homecomings, a reporter from the Financial Associated Press found that township consumption had received a significant boost. Recently, the reporter visited a farmer’s market in a town in western Henan. Years ago, there was an endless stream of consumers buying meat, and almost every butcher shop hung sausages with personal name tags hanging below them. The owner of the butcher’s shop is busy pickling meat and stuffing dumplings.

(Photo by a Financial Association reporter in front of a resident butcher’s shop) “The Spring Festival is what sells meat. This year, the epidemic policy has been relaxed. It is estimated that more people will return. The sausage has who hang names Let me hang them here to dry. They have already paid for it. Now they can only buy sausages and fill them with meat, and there is no stock. “A meat shop owner told a reporter from Financial Associated Press.

Some residents said: “The price of meat this year is not bad. I bought almost 400 yuan of pork. I bought it two weeks ago, and I bought it too early. If I buy it now, I can save 1 yuan per catty. . “

(Sausage is hanging in the butcher shop, dumpling stuffing, etc.) In addition, the 2023 Spring Festival travel has already begun. A few days ago, a reporter from the Financial Associated Press randomly interviewed several passengers in the waiting hall of Zhengzhou Railway Station. With the arrival of the wave of homecomings, it’s time to stock up for the new year and Spring Festival, or to support the continued increase in slaughter.

Zheng Lili further said that the increase in the north at the moment shows a strong trend and the increase is obvious, while the demand in the south is decreasing due to the returnees, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in slaughter. Looking at next week, entering the final work period before the Spring Festival, the slaughter volume will also usher in a wave of peaks, and the increase is still expected to be relatively noticeable. However, with the arrival of the Spring Festival, the time left for supply and slaughter is becoming more and more limited, and the game between supply and demand will continue to put pressure on pig prices.

According to previous statistics from the Shanghai Steel Federation, slaughterhouses will gradually stop working from the 28th of the twelfth lunar month, and the number of holidays will vary from 2 to 11 days. Due to the continued glut of pigs in the market, the completion of group farm plans is slow, and retail investors are actively selling pigs. It is expected that the market will be sufficiently supplied before the Spring Festival. Many people in the industry believe that “fat pigs celebrate the New Year” is a foregone conclusion, and the supply of fat pigs is too high. According to past practice, the slaughter volume will decrease by 60% after the year, and the pig price trend will be weak.

(Editor Liu Yan)