The Russia-Ukraine war enters its third year
Ukraine gets into trouble due to failed counterattack, conflict between Putin and Biden’s forces spreads. Russia, despite economic sanctions, growth rate ahead of G7, “adequate capacity to wage war for the next 2-3 years” Close relations with North Korea, Iran, China, India, etc. Significant cracks in an international order centered on the United States Far-right party fever in the Dutch general election increases the possibility of a Trump return to power in the United States.
▲ On the 24th, the city center of Lviv in western Ukraine, which marks two full years since the start of the war, is immersed in pitch darkness. Lviv News AFP Yonhap ▲ Until two years ago, the ruined city was a peaceful place with bright lights illuminating the streets at night (photo). On February 24, 2022, Russia declared that the war would end after the fall of Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, within three days, but as the country entered its third year, the world was gripped by war fatigue. Getty Images Yonhap News The war between the two sides, which began with Russia invading Ukraine, ends two years on the 24th. So far, Ukraine has overcome its overwhelming power gap and managed to fend off a Russian invasion, but its major counter-offense was hampered in the second half of last year and is struggling. As this war escalates into a power struggle between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden, there is a diagnosis that the international order is fundamentally changing.
On the 21st (local time), the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) announced that in a survey of 10,000 adults in 12 countries, including Germany, France and Hungary, only 10% of respondents answered that Ukraine would Russia won the war. . . This is half of the response that predicts a victory for Russia (20%). The majority predicted that the two countries would end the war through ‘peace talks’ (37%). This includes the suggestion that Ukraine surrender its lost territory to Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is vehemently opposed to this deal, but the reality is that it is currently unclear how long Ukraine can endure ▲ At the start of the NATO-Russia border war, Russia sent 200,000 troops and moved to Kiev, the Ukrainian capital. Ukraine surprised the world by continuously stopping this. In September 2022, the Ukraine, with the support of the Western world, managed to recapture Kharkiv in the north and Kherson in the south.
Russia gave up its occupation of Kiiu and began to ‘hold out’ in the eastern region. Building confidence, Ukraine launched an ambitious counter-offensive starting in June last year. However, they were unable to break through the solid Russian defense line and exhaust their power. Russia did not miss this opportunity and launched a counter-attack, occupying Audijuka, the eastern front line, on the 17th.
Over the past two years, Ukraine has fiercely resisted Russia, performing unexpectedly well. However, ammunition and manpower quickly ran out, giving up the lead in the war.
Russia, which seemed likely to collapse within a year or two due to Western world economic sanctions, is still going strong. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the Russian economy will grow by 2.6% this year, following its growth of 3.1% last year. In both years, it outperformed the GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate of seven major countries (G7), including the United States. In terms of GDP based on purchasing power, it has already surpassed Germany to become ‘Number 1 in Europe’ from 2022 onwards. This is highly unusual, given that Russian banks are excluded from the Association for International Banking and Interbank Telecommunications (SWIFT) ▲ Status of damage and losses from the war in Ukraine Business Insider reported that Russia is hosting almost all of its battles outside its territory, so the damage on the mainland is not significant. The reasons for this were explained as the fact that demand for goods and services is constantly created due to the ‘special nature war’, the fact that he has the ability to self-. sufficient in weapons and daily necessities, and the national finances strong through the export of crude oil and natural gas. Experts believe that Russia is fully capable of continuing the war for the next two to three years.
In particular, Russia neutralized Western sanctions by acquiring weapons from North Korea and Iran, which share anti-American sentiments, and strengthened relations with the ‘Global South’ (underdeveloped countries in the Southern Hemisphere), including China and India. This created a significant rift in the US-centered international order. Paul Dibb, emeritus professor at the Australian National University and former director of the Australian Defense Intelligence Service, told local media, “China and Russia are saying, ‘The West has been imposing an international order (unfavorable to them). “Now they cooperate with the thought that they have to create a new order that benefits them,” he analyzed.
This heightened geopolitical tension naturally prompts an arms race. The British think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies announced in its annual report on the 13th that total global military spending in 2023 will be $2.2 trillion (about 2,941 trillion won), up 9% compared to a year ago . As regional security was shaken by the war in Ukraine, all countries were stockpiling weapons.
The country that spent the most on military spending in the world was the United States, but it was NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) that led to the expansion of military spending. Recently, the German Ministry of Defense released a report stating that ‘Russia could launch a large-scale attack this spring and start a war with NATO within 10 years of winning the war in Ukraine.’ Reflecting this fear, defense spending by NATO member countries (excluding the United States) increased last year by 32% compared to 2014, when Crimea was annexed by Russia.
The prolongation of the war also creates a trend of national priority, especially in developed countries. This is because it encourages the far right ‘Let me live first’ mentality. In the Netherlands, the Freedom Party led by Geert Wilders, known as the ‘Dutch Trump’, won the general election last November. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and the far-right party ‘Brothers of Italy’ came to power through general elections in October 2022. In Germany and France, the approval ratings of far-right parties also show a steep rise.
The United States is also suffering from the far-right craze. There is a growing possibility that former President Donald Trump will return to power in the November presidential election. If he returns to power, there is a strong possibility that he will withdraw from the Ukraine and Israel issues. America’s leadership in confronting President Putin’s territorial ambitions has been put to the test.
Reporter Ryu Ji-young
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