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Source: Voice of Securities Daily
On November 15, the three main A-share indexes continued to rise, with the ChiNext Index being the strongest. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan for 3 consecutive days, and the net inflow of money headed north. The “bull market standard” securities sector performed strongly. What is the future trend of A shares? Where are the investment opportunities?
Finally on November 15, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.64% to close at 3134.08 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.14% to close at 11351.33 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.38% to close at 2431.73 points; total turnover; Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 1,058.61 billion yuan; The net purchase of northward funds was 8.154 billion yuan; overall, 4,172 A share stocks rose and 598 stocks declined.
Among Shenwan’s 31 categories of primary industries, all rose. Among them, the electronics industry rose 5.51%, the non-bank financial industry rose more than 3%, and its secondary sub-sector securities also rose 3.68%.
In particular, the electronics industry led the increase, receiving a net inflow of 7.632 billion yuan in large orders. Of the 304 stocks traded in the industry, 299 rose, accounting for 98.36% Among them, 94 stocks rose more than 5%.
For investment opportunities in the electronics industry,Soochow SecuritiesHe said that changes in inventory levels are an important leading indicator of the industry’s business cycle, and reaching the peak of inventory turnover days could become a tipping point that fundamentals have ended and the business climate has reversed. For the semiconductor sector, Q3 is still in the inventory build-up phase, and the average inventory turnover days of design companies increased by 19 days from the previous month, and may increase further in Q4; Apple’s peak season pulls goods to drive the improvement. consumer electronics inventory turnover in Q3, and we still need to pay attention to the impact of Android manufacturers’ destocking in Q4. We see that MLCC inventory in panels and passive components is approaching a reasonable level after a round of spending, and the Q4 boom is expected to bottom out. It is recommended to closely follow the pace of demand recovery in 1H23.
In terms of targets, we remain optimistic about domestic alternatives to core semiconductor equipment material parts and components. It is recommended to pay attention toNorth Huachuang、Anji Technology、Tuojing Technology、Huahai Qingke、Jiangfeng Electronics、Xinlai Applied Materials(protection of rights),Fuchuang Precision、Dinglong sharesand so forth; hopeful for the opportunity for passive components to bottom out, paying attention is recommendedTricyclic Group、Sunlord Electronics、Jiemei Technology、Farah Electronics、Jianghai shares、Guoli sharesand so forth; optimistic about consumer electronics leaders affected by cost improvements and entering a new round of innovation cycle, it is recommended to pay attentionEverwin Precision、Luxshare Precision、Conversion Holdings、Lante Optics、Laser Han、Zhuhai Guanyuand so forth; it is recommended to pay attention to the core beneficiary targets of car electrification and intelligenceStar Semiconductor、Times Electric、Senior Tianyue、Sanan Optoelectronics、World Games Circuit、Jingwang ElectronicsWait.
In addition, in terms of daily limit, 100 stocks closed at the daily limit price. Among them, there were 13 daily limit stocks whose stock prices had risen for more than 4 consecutive trading days; in terms of daily limit, 4 stocks closed at the daily limit price. From the perspective of Shenwan’s basic industry, the number of daily limit stocks in the electronics industry is first, reaching 22, followed by pharmaceutical, biological and mechanical equipment industries, with 14 and 10 daily limit stocks respectively.
Table: List of stocks that have risen for 4 consecutive days and closed at today’s daily limit
Watch: Zhao Ziqiang
Regarding the trend of A shares today, Zhu Runkang, Paipai.com Fortune’s public offering product manager, said that the level of domestic policy is constantly heating up at the macro level, and the Fed said that it will hold back interest rate hikes. The resonance of positive factors has greatly improved the long-term market sentiment, breaking through one trillion yuan. In addition, the attitude of the organizations has also become positive, and the enthusiasm for increasing jobs is high. Almost 40 billion yuan of capital has flowed to the north in 3 days. The next major factor affecting A-shares still depends on economic recovery, which we believe has a high probability of not happening overnight. The rebound trend of the stock market will also be repeated, and the overall trend will be volatile and upward.
Lang Chengcheng, general manager of Furong Fund’s research department, said that in general, with the optimization of epidemic prevention and control + the introduction of stable real estate policies for domestic economic growth, the high probability of the expected bottom range has been proven, and the bottom of the market in stages at the end of October strongly consolidated. In terms of external liquidity, US CPI rose 7.7% year-on-year in October, which was below market expectations, and core CPI also fell month-on-month. The 50bp rate increase by the Federal Reserve in December has become a high probability event, and the period of the fastest rate increase by the Federal Reserve will probably have passed.
Regarding the market outlook, Zhou Wenming, general manager of Lingze Investment, said that the low point at the end of October can be regarded as an important gradual bottom, but it is difficult to judge the height of the continued rebound, because it is only a marginal improvement and emotional relief, and it will take a long time for the situation to really heal over a period of time. Therefore, it is recommended to lower expectations, wait patiently, and wait for the market to recover naturally.
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