The tables turned in one fell swoop… The trigger is “arrogance”
Posted: 2024-02-12 19:41:00
Reporter Lee Eun-cheol euncheol@busan.com
The history of the general election that changed dramatically after the Lunar New Year
19th United Democratic Party and pro-Roh nomination conflict
The United Democratic Party, which was leading in approval ratings, was defeated.
Saenuri shows an overwhelming approval rating among people in their 20s
Identifying the real opposition, they give 1 party to the Oksae scandal
The Democratic Party was ahead in the 21st Seoul Metropolitan Government
Faced with the declaration of “180 seats” shortly before the elections
Democratic Party candidates running in fierce battlegrounds have suffered a setback due to Roh Moo-hyun Foundation Chairman Yoo Si-min’s statement that “all progressives will win 180 seats,” which just happened. five days before the general elections on April 15, 2020. Capture the world of people living on YouTube from the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation
Close to the Christmas holidays, during which exchanges of public opinion across the country are concluded, 57 days remain until the elections of the 22nd National Assembly, starting from the 13th. In the last three general elections, the situation has shown signs of rapid fluctuation after the holidays. In particular, it was exasperating that the political party, which was expected to win comfortably all three times, was intoxicated by the feeling of an early victory. Attention is also focused on variables in the second half of the run-up to the April 10 general election, where it is difficult to predict either side will win.
■In the words of arrogance
From the 19th general elections in 2012 to the 21st general elections in 2020, there have been mixed joys and sorrows during the festive season.
A comfortable victory for the Progressive Party had been predicted until the Lunar New Year holiday, about 70 days before the general election on April 11, 2012. The Democratic Party, which was the opposition party at the time, launched the Citizens United Party, led by pro-Roh (pro-Roh Moo-hyun) forces such as Moon Jae-in and Lee Hae-chan, and the Democratic United Party in December 2011, the previous year. The United Democratic Party achieved the effect of the integrated convention and quickly overtook the Saenuri Party to rise to first place in the party’s approval rankings. On the other hand, the Saenuri Party, the ruling party at the time, was going through a factional conflict between the pro-Lee (pro-Lee Myung-bak) and pro-Park (pro-Park Geun-hye) factions.
But after March the situation changed. The United Democratic Party was intoxicated with a sense of victory and internal conflict broke out between Democratic Party members and pro-Labour figures over nominations. In the end, the Saenuri Party won with a majority of 152 seats, while the United Democratic Party gained only 127 seats.
In 2016, the Saenuri Party lost its majority, securing only 122 seats in the elections due to conflict between the pro-Park (pro-Park Geun-hye) and anti-Park (non-Park Geun-hye) factions, which was explained by leader Kim Moo-sung’s “Royal Seal Movement” in the second half of the run-up to the general elections. Busan Ilbo DB
A similar situation occurred in the 20th general elections held on April 13, 2016, four years later. At that time, Ahn Cheol-soo’s faction and some groups in the Honam region, which had split from the Democratic Party of Korea, launched the People’s Party. With the good news of a split in the opposition, the Saenuri Party, led by leader Kim Moo-sung, was expected to hold easy elections. At the time the media predicted that the Saenuri party would win more than 180 seats. However, in the general elections held 65 days after the Lunar New Year, the leading party was the Democratic Party, which secured 123 seats. The Saenuri party won only 122 seats, one fewer, and the National Assembly returned to the ruling party for the first time in 16 years. The cause of the defeat was excessive confidence in victory and the resulting factional conflict. As the Saenuri Party advanced into the second half of the general elections, the conflict between the pro-Park (pro-Park Geun-hye) and non-Park (non-Park Geun-hye) factions, which was explained by Kim’s ideas Moo-sung ‘Royal Seal Wave’, intensified.
The case of the 21st general election held in the third year of the Moon Jae-in administration is slightly different from the previous two cases. The Democratic Party was expected to do well during the holidays not only in the metropolitan area but also in Buul-gyeong, considered a battleground, and the actual general election results showed it won in a landslide, securing 180 seats. After the election, Yoo Si-min, then president of the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation, appeared on YouTube and announced a landslide victory in the general election, but the expected goal was not achieved. Just five days before the April 15 general election, President Yoo expressed confidence: “It is not impossible if the 180 seats of the Pan-Progressive Party and the Minsaeng Party all receive proportional representation.”
As a result, the phenomenon of last-minute rallies was evident among conservative supporters and, eventually, among those running to fierce battlefields, such as Busan Jin-gap’s Kim Young-chun, Buyeocheongyang’s Su-hyun Park , Gongju, Chungnam, and Nam Young-hee of Dongmichuhol, Incheon, had to suffer involuntarily. President Yoo also appeared on a broadcast in the future and bowed his head to them, saying, “I’m sorry.”
The United Democratic Party, which benefited from the effects of the 2012 integration convention and ranked first in the ranking of political parties, ceded 152 seats, the majority, to the Saenuri Party due to a nomination conflict between members of the Democratic Party and those pro-Roh (pro-Roh Moo-hyun) ahead of the general elections on April 11, Yonhap News
■This time is no different
Unlike the previous three elections, it is difficult to predict which party will win in this general election. As a result of a survey conducted by Realmeter, a public opinion polling agency, among 1,004 voters aged over 18 across the country on the 7th and 8th, at the request of the Energy Economy Newspaper, the People Power Party has recorded 40.9% and the Democratic Party recorded 41.8%.
However, there are similarities with previous cases in that both sides show actions that do not meet public expectations. In the case of the ruling party, there is bad news from Ms. Kim Kun-hee. Although President Yoon Seok-yeol has personally expressed his position regarding the suspicion of First Lady Kim receiving luxury bags, the public still believes that this is a ‘half-explanation’.
The same goes for the opposition party. There is an atmosphere of anticipation of victory, especially in the metropolitan area, but within the party there is constant noise about the nomination. In particular, on the 6th, Lim Hyeok-baek, chairman of the official affairs committee of the Democratic Party, said: “Those who unwittingly contributed to the birth of Yoon Seok-yeol’s judicial regime, please also show a responsible attitude”, Despite interpretations in political circles that he was targeting the pro-Moon faction (pro-Moon Jae-in), MP Lee Jae-myung responded, and on his Facebook page he shifted the blame to the outside world, saying: “ The very act of dividing us whether we are pro-name (pro-Lee Jae-myung) or pro-moon is their strategy.”
Ultimately, the key will be which party meets public expectations first. A member of politics pointed out: “Politics only looks at two extremes” and “The level of voters is increasing, but politics is not keeping pace.”
Meanwhile, this public opinion poll was conducted via wireless (97%) and wired (3%) automatic response methods, and the sampling error was ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level. For more information, see the National Election Opinion Poll Deliberation Committee website.
Reporter Lee Eun-cheol euncheol@busan.com
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