CSIS Online Talk: Expert Insights on North Korea’s Nuclear Threat

Victor Cha, ⁣Vice President and Korea⁤ Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), speaks​ during an online discussion titled ‘What’s‍ Happening in North Korea’

Victor Cha, ‍Vice President and Korea Chair ‌at the ​Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), emphasized the need for ‘intermediate measures’ against North Korea to achieve ‌denuclearization of⁣ the Korean Peninsula.

During an online discussion ⁣titled​ ‘What’s Happening in North Korea’ held by CSIS, Cha stated, ‘There⁢ is a lot of discussion between nuclear threat ⁤reduction and denuclearization, but I believe the United States ⁣will never give up on the goal of denuclearization.’

Cha⁤ continued, ‘It will require intermediate steps to reach denuclearization,’ adding,⁢ ‘Some may call it the ​first step toward denuclearization, ‌while others may ⁢call it threat reduction measures.’ ⁣This means that measures to reduce the nuclear threat from North Korea are required in a situation where it will not be easy to achieve⁣ denuclearization of North Korea in‌ the near future.

Intermediate⁤ steps toward denuclearization ⁣of the Korean Peninsula were also mentioned​ by Mira Raphooper, the White House National Security Council’s senior director for East Asia and Oceania, in⁢ March. At⁤ the time, ‌Raphooper said,⁣ ‘If it can make the region and ​the world safer, we are willing⁤ to‌ consider intermediate⁤ steps toward denuclearization.’

In a conversation that same month, a former senior State Department official on North Korea affairs also expressed the view that ‘denuclearization cannot be achieved ⁢overnight,’ and that an intermediate step is necessary.

Sydney‍ Seiler, former director of the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s (NIC) North Korea department, predicted that there is a high ​possibility that North Korea will engage in provocations after the November presidential election.

Former Director Seiler recalled that North Korea conducted a ⁣nuclear test following the launch of ‌the Taepodong missile after ⁤former President Barack Obama was‌ re-elected, and predicted⁣ that ‘while we ⁣must remain vigilant about the possibility of a surprise​ provocation in October, a ⁤larger provocation, including a ⁢seventh nuclear test, will occur after‍ the election.’