TPLF and Amhara Fano militias launch offensives in northern Ethiopia

On September 23, 2026, large-scale armed hostilities broke out in northern Ethiopia as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Amhara Fano militias launched coordinated ground offensives against federal government forces, according to reports detailing a renewed descent into war. The upsurge follows months of building tensions and comes almost five months after the TPLF retook power in the Tigray region.

Origins of the Conflict and the 2022 Pretoria Deal

The latest fighting threatens a 2022 peace deal signed in Pretoria that had ended the previous conflict between the TPLF and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government. That prior war, which erupted in 2020 after a surprise attack on the federal military’s northern command post, killed hundreds of thousands. Under the Pretoria accord, the TPLF promised to disarm and agreed to an interim administration governing Tigray. However, the settlement left open wounds, including unresolved contested territories seized by the Amhara region and grievances over disarmament and consultation.

Collapse of the Settlement and New Alliances

The accord slowly collapsed as dialogue failed and relations deteriorated. In late April and early May, the TPLF ousted Tigray’s interim administration and reinstalled Debretsion Gebremichael as regional president, launched a major conscription drive, and formed a new alliance with other rebels vowing to overthrow Ethiopia’s government. In response, Addis Ababa mounted an intensifying drone campaign against TPLF forces, following earlier federal decisions to restrict fuel and cut off funds to the region.

Uncertainty on the Battlefield and Regional Risks

Much remains unclear about how the two sides are faring on the battlefield. Observers fear that further escalation could draw in Eritrea—which is closely aligned with the TPLF—and fuse dangerously with the war across the border in Sudan. While outside powers and African leaders are urged to press both sides to de-escalate, it remains unconfirmed how the warring parties will respond or whether diplomatic efforts can prevent a full-blown war.