Treasury Yields Fall Amid Renewed Trade Concerns
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U.S. Treasury yields edged lower on Wednesday, partially reversing a sell-off triggered by escalating trade tensions and fears of a “sell America” scenario, following new tariff threats from former President Donald Trump.The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield saw a slight decline as investors cautiously assessed the potential economic impact.
Yield Movements and Market Reaction
The 10-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to it’s price, initially rose sharply on Tuesday after Trump signaled his intention to implement tariffs on a range of goods if re-elected. This announcement sparked concerns about a potential trade war and a weakening of the U.S. dollar. As of 4:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.12%, down from Tuesday’s peak of 4.18%.
The initial sell-off on Tuesday saw approximately $25 billion flow out of U.S. assets, according to preliminary data from Bank of America.this outflow reflects investor apprehension about the potential for increased trade barriers and their impact on corporate earnings and economic growth. Reuters reported this outflow on january 23, 2026.
Trump’s Tariff Proposals and Economic Impact
Donald Trump, during a campaign rally on January 20, 2026, proposed implementing tariffs of up to 60% on imports from countries he accuses of unfair trade practices. He specifically mentioned China and Mexico as potential targets, and surprisingly, also included Greenland in his list of countries subject to potential tariffs. CNBC detailed these proposals, noting the unusual inclusion of Greenland.
Economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimate that Trump’s proposed tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP by 0.5% to 1.0% in the first year, and lead to a notable increase in consumer prices. The Peterson Institute’s policy brief, published January 22, 2026, outlines these potential consequences.
Investor Sentiment and Safe-Haven Assets
The renewed trade fears have prompted a flight to safe-haven assets, including gold and the Japanese yen. Gold prices rose by 1.2% on Wednesday,reaching $2,050 per ounce,while the Japanese yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar. This indicates a broader risk-off sentiment among investors. Bloomberg reported on this shift in investor behavior on January 24, 2026.
Analysts at Goldman sachs suggest that the market is pricing in a 30% probability of a full-blown trade war if Trump is elected in November 2026. goldman Sachs’ January 21, 2026 report details their analysis of the potential for escalating trade conflicts.
