Trump Delays Trade Actions in First Term

Trump’s First Hours: Tough on Immigration, Green Policies, but Quiet on Trade Threats

In his inaugural hours at the White House, President Donald Trump has kick-started his second term with a focus on hard-line immigration policies and environmental reforms, but his much-talked-about trade threats remain largely unaddressed. Absent from his maiden decrees were the tariffs that sent shockwaves through global commerce during his first term.

However, hints about his trade direction can be discerned. Trump’s order for a 25% tax on imports from Mexico and Canada -nemonic neighbors bound by a trade pact renegotiated under his watch – is edging towards an ultimatum. Presidents can impose tariffs unilaterally without Congressional approval.

Trump declared two national emergencies on Monday: one at the southern border to curb immigration, and another to bolster the already thriving U.S. petroleum and gas production. Yet, he held off on the economic emergency that would have fast-tracked tariffs, instead issuing a memo instructing federal agencies to scrutinize U.S. trade relationships with China, Canada, and Mexico.

"Trump’s inaugural address was scripting light on tariffs," observed Paul Donovan, chief economist at Swiss bank UBS, in a swift client note. Yet, Bloomberg Economics’ Tom Orlik cautioned that the tariff delay doesn’t signal abandonment.

A more measured approach to trade seems to be shaping up, suggested Chris Turner, global markets analyst at ING Bank. "Trump is an unpredictable wrecking ball," quipped Dominic Meagher, John Curtin Centre’s chief economist. Whatever the trajectory, one thing’s clear: Trump’s taking more time than initially anticipated.

Trump’s apparent openness to negotiation, a departure from his rigid campaign stance, is evident in his approach to China. Instead of immediate tariffs, he’s initiated an investigation into its "unfair practices," with a promised pronto chat with President Xi Jinping. Trump’s recent TikTok reprieve, a Chinese-owned platform, also hints at this thaw.

Trump’s trade restraint echoed in financial markets. After stratospheric gains post-November elections, the dollar eased off against major currencies, inching away from euro parity. But Trump re-ignited dollar fever by sunset, threatening Canada and Mexico with a 25% tariff by February 1.

"Many changes are coming our way," pondered Mary Erdoes, JPMorgan’s wealth management chief, as markets digested Trump’s whiplash turn. Despite his knack for market surprise, Trump’s dollar rally seems secure, at least in the short to medium term.

A ‘America First’ trade policy is pending, with a memo instructing federal agencies to evaluate U.S. trade ties with Mexico, Canada, and China. Trump’s November trade promises – 10% global import tariffs, 60% on Chinese goods, and a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports – remain unsubstantiated.

While President Trump’s initial actions suggest a focus on immigration and environmental policy, the potential for trade disputes remains a looming shadow. ⁢The 25% import tax on goods from⁢ Mexico and Canada, while yet to be fully implemented, signals a continuation of his “America first” approach. It⁤ remains to be seen whether these short-term measures signal a dramatic shift in trade policy or ⁤are simply a tactical move in a larger game. The global ‍economic community will be watching closely, as the actions taken in this new term will undoubtedly have far-reaching consequences for international relations and trade partnerships.
while President Trump’s early actions in his second term demonstrate a continued commitment to immigration restriction and energy independence, his approach to trade remains shrouded in ambiguity. The potential for tariffs hangs in the balance, forming a crucial piece of the economic puzzle he aims to solve. His decision to delay a formal trade emergency declaration suggests a calculated approach, prioritizing thorough review and potential negotiation over immediate action. The impact of his decisions on domestic industries, global markets, and the broader geopolitical landscape will undoubtedly be closely watched in the coming weeks and months.