Trump Faces Test: Special Election in Deep-Red District

The race is the first ‍for federal office since⁤ the Nov. 4 elections,when Democrats cruised to victories ‌ that were framed as a referendum on⁤ Trump. ‌Now Republicans want to change the storyline, sinking money into the campaign and inviting Trump to visit the state after ⁣holding a virtual rally⁣ last week.

Failing ⁣to run up the ‌score – or worse, losing the seat – would be a sign of weakness,⁤ emboldening Democrats as they try to take‍ back control of the U.S. House. If places like Tennessee’s 7th congressional district⁢ seem within reach, the party could expand its list of targets next year.

MAGA inc., a Trump-supporting super PAC, has reported more than $1 million in spending so far to support Matt Van Epps, the Republican candidate⁤ and​ former Army helicopter pilot who served in​ combat tours overseas. Its the first time that the institution has participated in a campaign‌ since last year’s presidential race.

With the election taking place just days after Thanksgiving, “I’m very concerned that we could be caught​ with our pants down,” said Rep. Tim Burchett,a Tennessee⁢ Republican.

The‍ White House did not respond to ⁤a request for comment about the request for Trump to campaign for Van Epps, ⁤which was disclosed by two people ‍with knowledge of the matter who were⁣ not authorized to speak publicly.

State Rep. Aftyn Behn, the Democratic⁤ candidate and progressive community​ organizer, is getting ​national support of her own, ⁤including a recent visit by party​ chair Ken Martin⁤ and ‌$1 million in television ⁢and digital advertising ⁢from the‌ House ‌majority PAC reported on Friday.

The tennessee ‌Democratic Party hosted Harris for a ⁢canvassing kickoff on Tuesday while she was in Nashville on her book tour.​ The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said it hadn’t invited the former vice president, ‍who​ didn’t ⁢appear with Behn even‌ though they‍ spoke at different⁣ times at the same event.

Libby Schneider, deputy executive director at the Democratic National ⁢Committee, said a strong ‍showing by Behn – even if she doesn’t win – will boost the party as it tries to take back control of the U.S.⁤ House next year.

“We continue to overperform in places where we have no business overperforming,” Schneider said.

In‍ four previous ⁣special House elections that were completed this year,the‌ Democratic candidate exceeded Harris’ vote share by an‍ average of 9 percentage points.

A surprise retirement, then a race for the seat

Tennessee organized‍ a special election after Republican Rep. Mark Green, ⁣first elected in 2018, retired earlier this year.

Green ‍won the district by 21 percentage points in 2024, and Trump scored a similar margin. It was one of ⁤three seats redrawn in redistricting in 2022 that⁢ attempted to erode the influence of Nashville,the state’s⁣ largest‌ city and a Democratic bastion.

Van Epps, a former state general services commissioner, has closely aligned himself⁣ with Trump,‌ whose endorsement ⁣helped ⁣him win a crowded primary.

“I will have your back 100%,” he told the president during the virtual rally. He pledged to focus ⁢on lowering costs and​ helping‍ veterans, plus supporting Trump’s immigration enforcement and rules preventing transgender women from playing on⁢ women’s sports‌ teams.

Behn, who describes herself as a “pissed off social worker,” narrowly won Democrats’ four-way primary.‌ She supported Bernie Sanders in the 2020 presidential primary, and she was removed ⁤from the Tennessee ‌House gallery in ‌2019 for shouting in protest of the‌ former speaker.

Like Democrats‍ who emerged victorious in New Jersey, Virginia and elsewhere earlier this month, Behn has been hammering‍ away at concerns​ about affordability. She’s emphasized her ⁤proposal ‍to eliminate⁤ a state‍ tax on groceries.

“We have been building the coalition of the disenchanted,” ⁢Behn said at a recent​ Nashville rally. “If ⁣you are upset ‌about the cost of living ‍and the chaos of Washington, we ⁤are ⁢your campaign.”

Behn has condemned‍ Trump’s tax and spending legislation known as ⁢the “One Big Lovely Bill” and his tariffs, both of which Van Epps supports. She also has criticized Republicans’ reluctance to ⁤release files related to Jeffrey Epstein, a sex offender who became infamous for his connections to the rich and powerful.

Van Epps originally opposed a House vote to force the Justice ​Department to disclose more documents, but changed his ⁢stance to mirror trump after the president backed the measure this week.

High stakes brings big money

Democratic allies ⁢hope to undermine Van ⁤Epps by promoting Jon Thorp,a‌ conservative independent ​candidate in the race. Your Community PAC,‍ which has spent ‍more than $16 million supporting democratic ‌candidates across‍ the country since last year, is sending out mailers that encourage Republicans to vote for Thorp ⁢by describing Van Epps as a “hedge fund billionaire-backed RINO.”

The bulk of⁢ the PAC’s funding has come from North‍ Fund, a nonprofit umbrella group for left-of-center​ advocacy organizations.

conservatives for American excellence, backed by megadonor Ken ​Griffin, is‍ spending over $600,000 in advertisements opposing Behn,​ according to a campaign finance report filed this week.

And Club for Growth, a‍ pro-school voucher⁣ group heavily involved​ during the primary, is targeting Behn over past remarks where she described herself as “radical.”​ The group has spent $300,000 on advertising so far.

Chip Saltsman, a Tennessee political strategist not involved in the race, said the slew of spending⁣ does not change his ‍expectation that Van Epps will win. But he could fall short of previous margins.

He suggested that Republicans take “a extra couple swigs of‌ Pepto bismol on⁣ election night.”

The situation could “cause a little heartburn, but they’re doing everything ⁤they‍ need to do.”⁤