Trump Market Bull Run Survival – Irish Times

Here’s a summary of the key points from the provided text, ‍focusing on the market’s current state adn the risks involved:

AI ⁢Hype & Valuation: The market is ⁣heavily invested in AI companies (like Nvidia) based⁤ on future ‍potential, not current revenue. Investors are betting AI‍ will drastically cut payroll ‍costs ⁢and increase efficiency, but‍ a recent MIT report shows 95% of organizations haven’t seen a financial return on their ⁤AI investments yet. There’s a question⁤ of whether the⁢ market is “over-excited” about AI.
Trump Risk Ignored: Despite ongoing,unresolved ⁣trade talks‍ with Washington,investors seem to be largely ignoring the risks posed by Donald ⁢Trump’s policies,driven by “fear of missing out” (FOMO) on AI gains.
Tariff Impacts: Trump’s tariffs pose risks to economic growth and inflation. while the impact hasn’t been fully felt yet, early signs of tariff-related inflation are emerging. JP Morgan estimates a 40% chance of a recession later this year.
Institutional undermining: ‍ Trump is actively undermining key US institutions, including firing officials who report unfavorable data and ⁤attacking the independence of the Federal Reserve (and its chair, Jerome Powell) for not aligning with his interest rate policies.
* China Chip Concerns: China may try to discourage purchases of chips as trade talks with the US remain unresolved, adding another layer of uncertainty.

Overall⁣ Mood: The ‍market is optimistic about AI’s long-term potential, but this optimism appears to be overshadowing significant political and economic ‍risks. The author finds this sanguine approach “puzzling.”