Trump Russia Ukraine War: Will He Follow Through?
trump’s Russia Sanctions Gamble: Will He Embrace Multilateralism or Go It alone?
Table of Contents
Donald Trump’s recent pronouncements on Russia have signaled a potential shift in US policy, but teh effectiveness of any new approach hinges on his willingness to collaborate with international partners. While Trump has expressed a desire to impose stricter sanctions on Moscow, his past skepticism towards multilateralism and his current resistance to further sanctions raise questions about his commitment to a coordinated global strategy.
A key test case for Trump’s approach lies in India’s relationship with Russia. New Delhi has substantially increased its reliance on Russian oil since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Russia now accounting for 40 percent of India’s oil imports. This surge in purchases has occurred despite existing sanctions, including the oil price cap engineered by the G7 and the Biden management.
India’s Stance on Russian Oil
India’s Petroleum Minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, has maintained that the contry will not alter its current approach to Russian oil imports. He emphasized India’s compliance with previous restrictions, including the price cap, which was designed to keep Russian oil flowing while limiting Moscow’s revenue.Notably, the Biden administration, through Treasury Secretary Janet yellen, even supported the price cap as a mechanism to secure “bargains” for developing nations like India. However, the minister also indicated that New Delhi could reconsider its position if an international agreement on shifting Russian oil purchases were to emerge.
The Path to Credible Sanctions: Embracing a Multilateral Approach
For Trump’s threats against Moscow to carry weight, he must embrace a multilateral strategy. This involves working in concert with allies to tighten the economic screws on Russia.
European Leadership and Potential US alignment
European nations, especially Brussels and Westminster, have taken the lead in targeting russia’s “shadow fleet,” a network of tankers used to evade sanctions and the price cap. They have also proposed new sanctions, including adjustments to the price cap to lower it further during periods of soft prices. The European Union has agreed to two sanctions packages in the last six months, and Trump woudl be wise to swiftly match these measures.
Expanding Sanctions to LNG Exports
Furthermore, Trump can significantly impact Russia’s energy sector by blacklisting Novatek, the country’s primary liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter. While Europe has opted for a phased approach to reducing LNG purchases, the smaller market for LNG tankers makes these exports more vulnerable to sanctions. Previous US sanctions on Russian LNG projects have proven tough to evade, suggesting a similar outcome for broader measures.
Russia’s Economic Strain and the War in Ukraine
Russia’s economy is reportedly showing signs of strain under the weight of the war in ukraine and the ensuing sanctions. Reports suggest Russian banks are engaging in preliminary discussions regarding state bailouts.
Targeting Kremlin Energy Assets
Amidst this economic pressure, Russia claims to have seized a town in ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, a claim denied by Kyiv and currently unverified. Trump has the potential to exert a far more significant influence on the war’s trajectory by reversing his current resistance to Ukrainian attacks on the Kremlin’s energy assets.
Conclusion: Rhetoric vs.Action
While Donald Trump may have declared a new approach to Russia, its true impact will be persistent by his willingness to collaborate with partners and allies and to acknowledge the costs associated with sustained pressure on Moscow. The effectiveness of his strategy will ultimately depend on whether it transcends mere rhetoric and translates into concrete, coordinated action on the global stage.**
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al jazeera’s editorial stance.*