Washington is considering a potential delay to a arms package to Taiwan worth $11 billion, as the Biden administration seeks to maintain momentum for an expected April summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The move comes amid increasing pressure from Beijing, which opposes any strengthening of Taiwan’s defensive capabilities.
White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt offered no comment on the reports, stating, “I don’t have any announcement or updates to share.” This silence follows President Trump’s disclosure on that he had discussed the potential arms sales with President Xi. “I’ve talked to him about it. We had a good conversation, and we’ll make a determination pretty soon,” Trump said, adding that he maintains “a very good relationship with President Xi.”
The Wall Street Journal reported on that the proposed sale has been thrown into uncertainty due to an intensifying campaign from Beijing. This development raises concerns that the U.S. May be altering long-standing policy regarding Taiwan, potentially signaling a willingness to consult with China before approving arms sales to the self-governed island.
Experts suggest that Trump’s discussion with Xi regarding arms sales to Taiwan could violate the “Six Assurances,” a set of U.S. Policy principles established in under President Ronald Reagan. These assurances, while non-binding, have guided the U.S.-Taiwan relationship for decades. Specifically, the second assurance states that the U.S. Does not consult with Beijing regarding arms sales to Taiwan.
Ryan Hass, China director at the Brookings Institution and a former National Security Council official, noted on X (formerly Twitter) that Beijing has long sought to condition Washington to consult with it before any Taiwan arms sales. “Previous administrations have refused, in line with Six Assurances. Regardless of what Trump decides, Trump has gifted Xi a win by setting new precedent,” Hass wrote.
Sean King, senior vice-president with Park Strategies, expressed a more forceful view, stating, “Under no circumstances should any US president ever weigh any Taiwan arms sale vis-a-vis the possibility of a Beijing visit. Taiwan needs protection and we should provide it as we see fit.”
Beijing views Taiwan as a renegade province to be reunified with the mainland, by force if necessary. While most countries, including the U.S., do not formally recognize Taiwan as an independent state, Washington opposes any forceful attempt to alter the island’s status and is legally committed to providing Taiwan with the means to defend itself. The Chinese embassy in Washington reiterated its firm opposition to arms sales to Taiwan, urging the U.S. To “handle the issue of arms sales in Taiwan with prudence.”
Analysts believe Trump is attempting to navigate a delicate balance. Bonnie Glaser, managing director with the German Marshall Fund of the United States, explained, “He doesn’t want to look weak, and so he wants to handle it in a way that he doesn’t offend Xi Jinping and undermine the prospects of having a good summit. But he also wants to be seen as tough. And he doesn’t want to be seen as abandoning Taiwan. He knows there’s enormous support in Congress for Taiwan.”
Members of Congress have already voiced concerns. Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee stated on social media that it is “unacceptable for Trump to run America’s Taiwan policy or arms sales decisions by Beijing for pre-clearance.”
Trump’s recent actions suggest a desire to avoid any disruption to the potential trade truce or a return to the strained U.S.-China relations seen last year, which included a protracted trade war and heightened rhetoric that negatively impacted global markets. This caution is further underscored by China’s growing economic leverage. Last year, China briefly halted shipments of rare earth minerals and reduced purchases of U.S. Soybeans, impacting American farmers – a key constituency for Trump.
A recent example of this cautious approach was the Pentagon’s announcement and subsequent withdrawal of a list of Chinese military companies spanning key sectors like biotech, AI, and semiconductors. Beacon Policy Advisors noted that this signals the Trump administration’s intention to maintain the status quo ahead of the April summit and avoid escalating tensions, similar to the period before Trump and Xi’s meeting in Busan, South Korea, where they agreed to a one-year trade truce.
Analysts anticipate Trump will seek a way to postpone the arms sale without outright cancellation. Jeremy Chan, senior analyst at Eurasia Group, stated, “Washington will likely delay but not cancel the arms package for Taiwan until after Trump’s visit. Xi clearly messaged in his phone call to Trump earlier this month that another arms package before April could imperil the visit, and neither side wants that to happen.” Chan, a former U.S. Official, doubts any new package will emerge before .
Previous instances of delaying arms sales to Taiwan in pursuit of diplomatic goals are not uncommon. In , a $8.1 billion package of F-16V fighter aircraft was reportedly delayed during trade negotiations with Beijing. Similarly, in , a $1.4 billion arms package was held up while Washington sought China’s cooperation on North Korea negotiations.
Glaser added, “It’s just not unusual for people to look and say, ‘Oh, we have something coming up.’ That’s part of diplomacy. It’s about minimising the negative impact when you make a decision.”
Another potential hurdle is Taiwan’s own legislative process. The island’s Legislative Yuan is currently embroiled in a partisan dispute over a proposed $40 billion defence budget, which could complicate the financing of any new arms package. “Very much moving a target,” Glaser said. “The inability of the parties to work together on anything … opens up fissures that [Beijing] can exploit.”
