Munich, Germany – A familiar pattern of diplomatic engagement is unfolding between the United States and its European allies, one described by observers as a deliberate “good cop/bad cop” routine. The strategy, reminiscent of interrogation tactics, appears designed to extract concessions from European nations on a range of issues, from trade and defense spending to geopolitical alignment.
The dynamic was on full display in the lead-up to and during the recent Munich Security Conference and has continued in the days following. While President Donald Trump and members of his administration have adopted increasingly confrontational rhetoric, other U.S. Officials have presented a more conciliatory face, offering a path towards resolution – but only on American terms.
The “bad cop” persona has been most prominently embodied by Vice President J.D. Vance, whose address at the Munich Security Conference was characterized as hostile. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick further inflamed tensions with what were described as inflammatory remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, reportedly causing European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde to walk out of a dinner. Several ambassadorial appointments made by President Trump have also been criticized for a lack of diplomatic tact.
President Trump himself has repeatedly characterized the European Union as an adversary, falsely accused NATO allies of financial exploitation, and questioned the value of the transatlantic alliance. His lengthy address at the World Economic Forum in in Davos was consistent with this approach, characterized by factually challenged claims and a generally antagonistic tone.
Counterbalancing this aggressive posture, officials like Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby have attempted to project a more constructive image. Colby delivered a speech at NATO headquarters in Brussels on , calling for a “NATO 3.0” and emphasizing the importance of a modernized alliance. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s address at the Munich Security Conference, while not entirely devoid of criticism, was described as at least somewhat conciliatory. These officials consistently maintain that the United States and Europe “belong together,” but their efforts are carefully calibrated to avoid directly contradicting the more hardline positions taken by President Trump and his allies.
The question facing European leaders is whether this division of labor is a deliberate strategy to keep the continent divided and off-balance. According to analysis, the approach aligns with President Trump’s belief that unpredictability is a valuable negotiating tactic. The “bad cops” issue warnings and threaten consequences for resistance, while the “good cops” appeal to those Europeans hoping for a more amicable relationship through appeasement and flattery.
This strategy is rooted in President Trump’s desire to deal with European countries individually, leveraging the United States’ greater economic and political power. This approach is consistent with his past support for Brexit, and his backing of far-right movements within Europe, which tend to be critical of the European Union and embrace nationalist ideologies. Washington believes these movements would make it easier to exploit divisions within the continent.
However, this approach carries risks. A weaker and more divided Europe is not necessarily in the long-term interests of the United States, particularly in a multipolar world where competition with China and other global powers is intensifying. A fractured Europe could be more vulnerable to external influence and less willing to cooperate with Washington on critical issues such as intelligence sharing and technology transfer restrictions.
Recent polling data suggests growing disillusionment with the United States among European citizens. Reports indicate that , 51 percent of Europeans view the United States as an enemy, while only 9 percent consider it a friend. This shift in public opinion raises the possibility of a more decisive and enduring rift in transatlantic relations.
European leaders are reportedly confused by the conflicting messages emanating from Washington. However, analysts suggest they should recognize the pattern and understand that the “good cops” and “bad cops” are working in concert to achieve the same objective. The focus now, according to observers, should be on actions rather than words. Whether President Trump will continue to escalate trade disputes, revive threats against European allies, or adhere to existing agreements will be crucial in determining the future of transatlantic relations.
Presenting a united front is seen as the most effective way for Europe to navigate this challenging environment and encourage a more predictable and constructive relationship with the United States. The coming months will be critical in determining whether transatlantic ties can be salvaged or will continue their downward trajectory.
