Trump’s High-Stakes Gamble: Can He Divide the Jewish Vote in America
Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump believed he was entitled to the votes of the majority of American Jewish voters, especially after he moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognized Jerusalem as the “eternal unified capital of Israel” and referred to the Golan Heights as “Israeli territory.”
In addition to withdrawing from the nuclear deal with Iran, Trump also closed the Palestinian diplomatic office in Washington and the U.S. consulate in East Jerusalem.
However, the reality of Jewish voting appears to be more complicated than Trump’s calculations, as historically more than two-thirds of American Jews vote Democratic, and Trump hopes he can create a gap and breakthrough in the Jewish vote that would allow him to win a majority, or at least half, of the vote.
Although most American Jews view the Republican presidential candidate as very friendly to Israel, 68% of them previously voted for his Democratic rival Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, and all polls indicate that 60% to 70% of American Jews intend to vote for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.
Jewish voting trends
The pro-Democratic Jewish Democratic Council of America released a national poll of 800 Jewish voters showing Harris’ support among Jewish voters at 72%, compared to Trump’s 25%, with the rest of the voters undecided about which side they will support, which is a higher percentage than Biden received in the 2020 election.
But two other recent independent polls suggest Harris’ lead may be narrower than that — though a majority of Jewish voters still tend to support her candidacy. For example, a poll released by the Pew Research Center showed Harris at just 65% to Trump’s 35%.
Meanwhile, a poll conducted by Another Strategy Group showed Harris’ support among Jewish voters falling to just 57%.
Trump’s campaign is courting Jewish voters who are unhappy with the growing influence of the left-wing progressive movement within the Democratic Party, which opposes the United States’ full support for Israel’s aggression in the Gaza Strip. However, Trump’s close ties with anti-Semitic figures on the far right of the Republican Party, such as the famous broadcaster Tucker Carlson, have also caused concern among American Jews.
Al Jazeera interviewed Jack Bostic, a Jewish voter living in Montgomery County, Maryland, who believes that confusion surrounding Jewish voters has become a four-year tradition in the United States.
In response, he explained, “Every four years, Jewish Republicans say this is the year Jewish Americans will vote for the Republican presidential candidate, and then the election in November proves that this is not true. This year is no exception, and Harris will get 70% to 75% of the Jewish vote.”
Trump (left): I was not treated right by Jewish voters (Israeli media)Trump’s threats
Republican presidential candidate Trump said Thursday night in a speech organized by the American Israel Committee dedicated to combating anti-Semitism that Jewish votes would bear a large part of the blame if he loses the election in November.
“I will tell you as simply and gently as possible: I was not treated right by the Jewish voters, and I don’t know if they know what will happen if I don’t win this election. If that happens, the Jewish voters bear a lot of responsibility for it, because right now I have only 40 percent support among them, which means that 60 percent of them are voting for the enemy.”
Trump reiterated that Harris hates Jews and Israel, while he has served and given more to Israel than any other president in American history. The White House and Kamala Harris’ campaign team responded strongly to Trump’s intimidating remarks and accused him of promoting division and hatred against the Jewish community.
In response to Trump’s remarks, White House spokesman Andrew Bates said, “At a time when all leaders have an obligation to respond to the tragic rise of anti-Semitism around the world, it is abhorrent that Trump is peddling dangerous metaphors that seek to tear society apart and incite different groups against each other.”
Kamala Harris’ husband, Doug Emhoff, who is Jewish, also joined the discussion, saying: “Jewish Americans will not be afraid of Trump’s attacks. He is trying to fan the flames of anti-Semitism by blaming Jews and using them as scapegoats, and he even did so at an event that claimed to combat anti-Semitism! This is dangerous behavior and must be condemned.”
Amid the controversy, the Republican Jewish Coalition responded and defended Trump — with the coalition’s CEO Matt Brooks issuing a statement calling Trump’s speech “an attempt to rally support for the Jewish community and Israel as we collectively face one of the darkest days in modern Jewish history.”
He added that “there is no doubt that Donald Trump has done more for American Jews and the Jewish state while he was president of the United States than any other president in modern history,” and said that although many Jewish Americans vote Democratic, “Trump is working tirelessly to change that.”
He also said that Trump succeeded in getting the largest Jewish vote in 40 years in 2020, adding, “We expect President Trump to have a historic success in the decisive election in 2024.”
Trump claims Harris hates Jews (Al Jazeera)Small number of people but big impact
American Jews make up no more than 2% of the country’s total population, and like other minorities in the United States, they cannot determine the identity of the next president, but they are highly represented in some swing states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan. They have huge advantages in two important states, and American Jews can provide more financial spending and donations than any other community.
Although most American Jews support the Democratic Party for its stance on social issues unrelated to Israel, one of the major donors, Miriam Adelson, an Israeli-American who inherited billions of dollars after the death of her husband Sheldon Adelson, one of the biggest historical supporters of the Republican Party and Israel expansion, has pledged $100 million to the Trump campaign to help him win the 2024 election. It should be noted that Sheldon Adelson is one of the biggest historical supporters of the Republican Party and Israel expansion plans.
At the same time, the Harris campaign has placed great emphasis on Jewish voices in Pennsylvania and has recruited more influential American Jews to join its campaign, such as Eva Weiner, who will serve as Pennsylvania’s Jewish communications director this week, illustrating the important role Jews will play in this key swing state, which both campaigns see as a must-win for winning the presidential election.