: Trump’s Iran Strike Decision: Key Questions to Watch
- if Syria in 2013 is the Obama precedent that may sway Trump toward intervention, Libya in 2011 is the one that may sway him against.
- In that case, a US-led NATO air campaign intervened to enforce a no-fly zone in Libya in order to prevent what many feared was an impending massacre by...
- Could US intervention bring down the 46-year-old Islamic Republic?
is help really “on its way” for IranS protesters?
That’s what President Donald Trump promised in a Truth Social post earlier this week, adding that “Iranians Patriots” should “KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!”
Trump first threatened that the US was “locked and loaded” to launch strikes on Iran if it continued killing protesters on January 2, and has followed up with several similar messages. As then, the protests have spread throughout the country, and the regime’s crackdown has become ever more brutal. Though a nationwide internet blackout has made it tough to get an accurate picture of what’s happening on the ground in Iran, human rights groups believe between 12,000 and 20,000 people may have been killed. at the very least, we can say that the regime defied Trump’s warning to stop killing protesters.
Just a few days ago, Trump appeared to be leaning toward military strikes on Iranian regime targets, the first since the US bombed Iranian nuclear targets last June. But trump appeared more equivocal on Wednesday, saying that “significant sources” had told him that the killing in Iran had ended and that the United States would “watch and see” if it resumed. The governments of Israel and several Arab countries have reportedly urged trump to refrain from strikes for now, fearing regional retaliation.
The violence may be subsiding, though that may be less because the regime is worried about US intervention than because the protest movement itself is starting to subside.
Will it create new problems?
if Syria in 2013 is the Obama precedent that may sway Trump toward intervention, Libya in 2011 is the one that may sway him against.
In that case, a US-led NATO air campaign intervened to enforce a no-fly zone in Libya in order to prevent what many feared was an impending massacre by dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi’s forces in the opposition-held city of Benghazi. The intervention led to the overthrow of Qaddafi’s despotic regime, but also Libya’s descent into civil war and chaos, contributing to armed conflict and mass migration throughout north Africa. Most Americans remember “Benghazi” today not for the averted massacre in 2011, but for the attack that killed two US diplomats and two CIA contractors in the city the following year.
Could US intervention bring down the 46-year-old Islamic Republic? If so, what would come next? Iran hawks argue that the country’s widespread opposition and strong civil society signal that it’s unlikely to go the way of Libya or Iraq and devolve into civil war.
Perhaps that’s true. But the president has also consistently shown skepticism toward nation-building missions throughout both his terms, even as he’s intervened in multiple countries. In his military actions thus far, weather the Syria strikes and assassination of General Qassem Soleimani in his first term or the campaigns in Yemen, Iran, and Venezuela in this one, Trump has managed to defy critics who warned he was leading the US into a quagmire,always managing – so far at least – to keep the intervention limited and the backlash manageable.
Iran Protests (2022-2023)
The protests in Iran began on September 16, 2022, following the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman, after being detained by Iran’s morality police for allegedly violating dress code rules.
The protests quickly escalated, spreading to dozens of cities across Iran and attracting diverse groups of participants, including students, women, and members of ethnic minorities. Demonstrators called for greater freedoms, an end to the mandatory hijab, and, in some cases, the overthrow of the Islamic republic.
Security forces responded with a violent crackdown, resulting in hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests, according to human rights organizations. Amnesty International reported at least 548 deaths as of November 30,2022,including 69 children. Amnesty International – Iran
U.S. Policy Towards Iran During the Protests
The U.S. government, under both the Trump and Biden administrations, has expressed support for the Iranian people and their right to protest peacefully.
During the initial phase of the protests in late 2022, the Trump administration, despite having previously withdrawn from the Joint Thorough Plan of Action (JCPOA), viewed the unrest as an opportunity to weaken the Iranian government. As reported by vox, Trump saw the protests as a “useful means of weakening an adversary.” Vox – Trump and Iran Protests
The Biden administration has continued to support the protests through sanctions targeting Iranian officials involved in the crackdown and by providing tools to enable Iranians to access information online. On december 19, 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Iranian officials responsible for suppressing protests. U.S. Department of the Treasury - Sanctions Related to Iran Protests
However, the U.S.has maintained its focus on preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, and negotiations regarding a potential return to the JCPOA have continued intermittently. As of January 16, 2026, negotiations remain stalled. U.S. Department of State – Iran Nuclear Deal
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
The JCPOA, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, was an agreement reached in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) plus the European Union.
The agreement limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.The Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA in May 2018, reimposing sanctions on Iran. The Biden administration has expressed a willingness to rejoin the JCPOA, but negotiations have been complicated by Iran’s demands and concerns about the deal’s sunset clauses.
On October 10, 2023, the U.S. State Department stated that a return to the JCPOA is not currently being pursued.