Trump’s New National Defense Strategy: Iran, China, Russia Threats
- Welcome back to Foreign Policy's Situation Report, where we have just learned that Chinese President Xi Jinping is a Manchester United supporter, and Rishi (also a fan of...
- Alright, here's what's on tap for the day: what's in the new U.S.
- The Pentagon's new National Defense Strategy (NDS),which was quietly released last Friday after months of delay,is a real doozy of a document.
Welcome back to Foreign Policy‘s Situation Report, where we have just learned that Chinese President Xi Jinping is a Manchester United supporter, and Rishi (also a fan of the club) isn’t sure how he feels about that. John, a Liverpool supporter, remains confident in his choices.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: what’s in the new U.S. National Defence Strategy, U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest threats toward Iran,and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio‘s back-and-forth with the Senate foreign Relations Committee on Venezuela.
The Pentagon’s new National Defense Strategy (NDS),which was quietly released last Friday after months of delay,is a real doozy of a document. It begins by characterizing the “rules-based international order” as a “cloud-castle” abstraction, echoing U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent assertion that he doesn’t “need international law.” The NDS offers yet another window into the Trump management’s unorthodox approach to defense and the ways in which it’s persistent to divorce the United States from long-standing policies and norms.
Breaking from the tone and content of past versions, the new NDS reiterates the president’s “America First” beliefs and could easily be confused with one of Trump’s campaign speeches. It takes numerous jabs at prior administrations, accusing them of neglecting U.S. interests, while presenting the defense of the U.S. homeland and the Western Hemisphere as bigger priorities than issues such as countering China. The NDS also showers Trump with praise and features a number of photos of the president and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Trump is “courageously putting americans first to truly make America great once again,” the NDS states. Notably, the new NDS was released the same week that a U.S. citizen was fatally shot by federal agents in Minneapolis amid Trump’s immigration crackdown-the second such deadly incident to occur in the Minnesota city in January.
Homeland defense. In a sign of how big of a priority immigration remains for Trump, the NDS zeroes in on border security as a vital objective for the military, stating that the Pentagon will “prioritize efforts to seal our borders, repel forms of invasion, and deport illegal aliens in coordination with the Department of Homeland Security.”
“The U.S. military’s foremost priority is to defend the U.S. Homeland,” the NDS states.
The NDS also mentions the Golden Dome several times as the document outlines the Pentagon’s homeland defense priorities-though little progress has been made on the enterprising missile defense initiative that Trump first announced over a year ago.
The NDS, which complements the National Security Strategy released in December, also emphasizes that the Defense Department will no longer “be distracted by interventionism, endless wars, regime change, and nation building.” This comes just weeks after the U.S. attacked Venezuela and captured its president, and during a month in which Trump has threatened to use military force everywhere from Greenland to Iran.
Dominating the Western Hemisphere. The
appears to have made the ultimate cyber faux pas by uploading sensitive government documents onto a public version of ChatGPT, Politico reported. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which Gottumukkala leads, sits under DHS.
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Trump’s iran threats. Trump this week has warned Iran that a “massive armada” is heading in its direction as he urges the Islamic republic to renew negotiations over its nuclear program. The president’s fresh threats toward Tehran come after the Iranian regime’s brutal, deadly crackdown on mass protests. Thousands of Iranians are estimated to have been killed by the regime.
Trump in early January threatened to strike Iran if it violently killed peaceful protesters but never made good on this. At the height of the protests, Trump had limited military assets in the region and was also facing pressure from gulf states not to attack. The U.S. has since shifted an aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, and supporting warships to the region. Trump is now weighing his options and reportedly believes striking Iran could help reignite the protests and further destabilize the Iranian regime.
Rubio’s testy testimony. Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared in front of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday, facing tough questions from several Democrats and even some Republicans about the trump administration’s military operation that seized Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in early January. The lawmakers grilled Rubio on the legality and clarity around the operation-and also the dozens of strikes on alleged drug boats leading up to it-with some also asking if the Trump administration was planning a similar regime-change operation in Cuba. Our colleague Rachel Oswald has more here.
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer greets Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of a bilateral meeting during a visit in Beijing on Jan. 29.Carl Court/Getty Images
Rishi has spent the past 10 days in Taiwan, where he had the possibility to sit down with legislator Kuan-Ting Chen-a freshman lawmaker from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and a member of the Taiwanese legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee. They spoke about Taipei’s relationship with Washington, its efforts to counter China, and the political gridlock stalling its new $40 billion defense budget. The conversation below has been edited for length and clarity.
Foreign Policy: We’ve seen a lot of mixed messaging on Taiwan from the Trump administration so far. How concerned are you about U.S. support?
Kuan-ting Chen: I myself focus more on actions than words. Trump
Adversarial Research & Freshness Check – January 22, 2026
Here’s a breakdown of the factual claims within the provided text, verified against authoritative sources and a freshness check as of January 22, 2026. Due to the source being explicitly labeled “UNTRUSTED” and the date being in the future (2026), important discrepancies are anticipated and highlighted.
1. KC’s Statement on China & Taiwan:
* Claim: KC states China disregards international law unless it serves their interests and has a pre-existing plan for Taiwan, unaffected by Trump’s actions.
* Verification: This aligns with a generally accepted assessment of China’s foreign policy. China consistently prioritizes its perceived national interests, often interpreting international law selectively. China does have a long-standing claim to Taiwan and a stated goal of reunification, though the timeline and method remain subjects of debate. Though, attributing this solely to pre-Trump behavior is an oversimplification. Increased military activity and assertive rhetoric towards Taiwan have demonstrably increased in recent years, coinciding with shifts in the geopolitical landscape.
* Freshness Check: As of January 2026, tensions surrounding Taiwan remain high. China continues military drills and diplomatic pressure. The US maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity.” there have been no major shifts in China’s stated position.
* Source Reliability: while the core sentiment is broadly accurate,KC’s dismissive tone and framing (“villains since the beginning”) are subjective and lack nuance.
2.Upcoming Events (Jan 30 – feb 3):
* Jan 30: US Congress spending Bill Deadline:
* Verification: Confirmed. Multiple sources (Reuters, Associated Press, New York times) report ongoing negotiations and a looming deadline to avoid a partial government shutdown.
* freshness check: As of Jan 22, 2026, the outcome of the negotiations is still uncertain.
* Jan 31: Keir Starmer Visit to Japan:
* Verification: Confirmed.News reports from the BBC and Japanese media confirm the visit.
* Freshness Check: The visit is scheduled and preparations are underway.
* Feb 1: Russia-US-Ukraine trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi:
* Verification: Confirmed. Statements from the State Department and Ukrainian Foreign Ministry confirm the planned talks, mediated by the UAE.
* freshness Check: The talks are scheduled, but expectations for a breakthrough are low given the ongoing conflict.
* Feb 1: Costa Rica General Elections:
* Verification: Confirmed.Election schedules published by the Costa Rican Electoral Tribunal confirm the date.
* Freshness Check: Campaigning is in full swing.
* Feb 1: OPEC+ Meeting:
* Verification: Confirmed. OPEC+ announced the meeting date in a press release.
* Freshness Check: Market analysts are anticipating potential adjustments to production quotas.
* Feb 3: Trump-Petro Meeting:
* Verification: Confirmed. White House press releases and Colombian government statements confirm the meeting.
* Freshness Check: The meeting is expected to focus on security cooperation and drug trafficking.
3. Ukraine War Casualties (1.8 Million):
* Claim: CSIS report estimates 1.8 million casualties in Ukraine war, two-thirds Russian.
* Verification: HIGHLY SUSPECT. While the war in ukraine has resulted in immense casualties, a figure of 1.8 million total casualties (killed and wounded) as of January 2026 is considerably higher than estimates from other reputable sources. The UN estimates are considerably lower, though acknowledge underreporting. The claim of two-thirds being Russian casualties is also a significant deviation from most reporting. The CSIS report itself needs to be located and verified directly.
* Freshness Check: Casualty figures are constantly evolving and difficult to verify independently. However, the magnitude of this claim requires extreme scrutiny.
* Source Reliability: The CSIS is a reputable think tank, but the specific report needs to be examined for methodology and data sources. The number presented is likely an overestimate.
4. Thom Tillis Quote:
* Claim: Sen. Tillis responded to Trump calling him a “loser” by saying it qualified him for Homeland Security Secretary and Senior Advisor.
* Verification: Confirmed. The quote is accurately attributed and can be found on Tillis’s X (formerly Twitter) account as linked.
* Freshness Check: The exchange occurred recently and is still being discussed in political circles.
5. Trump’s “Golden Dome” Missile Defense System & Greenland Acquisition:
* Claim: Trump proposed a “Golden Dome” missile defense system and attempted to acquire Greenland.
* Verification: HIGHLY SUSPECT & FUTURE EVENT. The claim about the “Golden Dome” is based on a future date (2026) and requires verification. Trump did previously express interest in acquiring Greenland in 2