In the “Turkish House” building in downtown New York City, and in an atmosphere of “smiles of courtesy,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on September 20, 2023 on the sidelines of the meetings of the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly.
Commenting on the meeting, Erdogan said at the time that “we must all work together for a world in which peace prevails,” and announced his intention to make a close visit to Israel to consolidate relations that are tense from time to time, but all of this was destroyed after a few weeks, and the “flood” took its toll. With all the plans of Erdogan and Netanyahu to reopen the “Ankara – Tel Aviv” line.
From the first day of the Israeli war on Gaza, Turkey announced its position on the “occupation,” refusing to classify the “Hamas” movement on the list of “terrorist organizations,” before Erdogan came out and added that “Hamas is a popular resistance movement.” However, these statements are in addition to the supportive demonstrations. For the Palestinians throughout Turkey, it seems that it was not enough for Ankara to demonstrate a “serious position” against Israel, and this was reflected in the ballot boxes in the recent local elections in which the “Justice and Development” Party lost, and according to some analysts, a “supportive movement for Palestine” voted against the “Justice and Development Party.” and development” because of Erdogan’s “shameful” stance on the Israeli war on Gaza.
After the elections, Erdogan came out again with the largest escalation against Israel, describing Netanyahu as “the Hitler of our era.” The Turkish Ministry of Commerce announced “restricting exports to Israel,” before following it up with another decision, announcing the cessation of all its commercial and economic transactions with Israel, and joining the genocide lawsuit against Israel. South Africa filed it against Israel, and the most prominent question here is: Who is the biggest loser from the boycott, Turkey or Israel?
The volume of trade exchange between Turkey and Israel is $9.5 billion, and based on the recent decision taken by Turkey, this number is supposed to become non-existent, and Ankara pledged that trade with Israel will not return before the latter allows humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza without interruption.
Probably an Israeli desire not to escalate
Turkish businessman and member of the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, Cengiz Yilmaz, said in his interview with Al-Sharq that Turkey’s economy “will not depend on trade with the Israeli occupation state, and for us this number does not concern us. What the government has done is a step in the right direction.” “.
Yilmaz adds: “We have many other alternatives. The things we import from Israel we can import from other countries, and the goods we export to Israel we can export to other destinations. In short, this behavior is correct and will not negatively affect our country’s economy.”
Former Turkish diplomat Guler Gers, former Consul General in Los Angeles, said in an exclusive interview with Al-Sharq that “Turkey has become the first country in the world to completely cut off trade with Israel,” and this decision was taken after the visit of Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to Riyadh. Fidan held bilateral meetings in Riyadh with the foreign ministers of the contact group that was formed after the meeting of the Arab and Islamic summits on November 11. Fidan also met in Riyadh with his American counterpart, Anthony Blinken, and apparently “informed him that Turkey would announce decisions against Israel, as well as By announcing these decisions, Turkey wanted to pressure Islamic countries to take similar measures.”
Guler adds, “On the other hand, the initial Israeli response to Turkey came from Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz, where he accused Erdogan of being a “dictator who underestimates the interests of the Turkish people,” warning of an Israeli-American response to the Turkish steps, but the fact that Israel chose to respond to The actions taken by Ankara at the level of Foreign Minister, and the lack of a statement from the Israeli presidency or the Prime Minister’s Office, “also carry a message in themselves, as Israel knows that Turkey will play a role in bringing peace to the region after the war, and for this reason, the impression emerges that “Israel is trying to keep the tension between the two countries under control instead of escalating it.”
The former Turkish diplomat concludes her interview with Al-Sharq by saying: “It would not be wrong to describe Ankara’s actions and its declared position as very courageous.”
Economic losses for both parties
The Turkish Export Federation refused to answer Al-Sharq’s question about the Turkish economy being affected by the decisions recently taken by Ankara.
As for the researcher at the Kandel Center for Studies in Istanbul, Ahmed Hassan, he said in his interview with Al-Sharq, “There are certainly economic losses for both sides. As for Turkey, the economic loss is represented in reducing Turkey’s general export target from 267 billion dollars for the current year to 260 billion if The decision to end the restrictions was not taken within three months, in addition to the compensatory pressures on companies and the Turkish government because the trade agreements are based on an international insurance system that Israeli companies may resort to. Turkey will also face internal pressures from the labor market and exports if the Turkish government does not provide alternatives for them within current economic conditions.”
Hassan adds, “The Israeli losses are represented by an increase in the prices of building materials, electronic materials, and chemicals in Israel by a rate ranging between 25 to 40%, depending on alternative paths and the possibility of providing other markets, in addition to an increase in the prices of fresh materials (vegetables, fruits, and animal derivatives) by more than half.” “It reaches double due to demand and lack of alternative markets.”
The researcher at the Kandel Center continues, “Netanyahu’s government will also face internal pressures from the labor market and production in addition to the pressures of war, in addition to the possibility of other countries following the Turkish model, and this also threatens the Israeli economy.”
Popular pressure on the Justice and Development government, in addition to the Israeli excessive killing of civilians in Gaza, may have prompted Erdogan to escalate against Israel, and if the status quo continues as it is, Turkish-Israeli relations “will not be restored in the near future,” according to observers. However, if an agreement is reached in Gaza and the war ends, positions may soften relatively, amid speculation that if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is removed from power, any future Israeli government will be acceptable to Turkey and relations with it will be reconsolidated again.
