As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine passed its 1418th day last month, it crossed a historical threshold – the same length of time it took Moscow to defeat Nazi Germany in World War II. Unlike the Red Army, which eight decades ago reached Berlin in what it calls the Great Patriotic War, Russia’s four-year full-scale invasion of its neighbor is still struggling to fully capture Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland.
After Moscow failed to seize the capital Kyiv and install a puppet government in February 2022, the conflict morphed into a war of immense cost. Estimates suggest nearly 2 million military personnel have been killed, wounded, or gone missing on both sides in the most devastating conflict in Europe since World War II.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed this week that approximately 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in action since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022. He also noted a large number of officially reported missing, both military and civilian personnel. Kyiv and Moscow routinely publish assessments of the other side’s losses in the war, but rarely provide details on their own casualties.
According to estimates, Russia has suffered approximately 1.2 million casualties during the full-scale invasion, potentially the greatest loss incurred by a major power in any war since World War II. The exact number of Russian soldiers killed and wounded remains contested, but the invasion has undeniably led to catastrophic losses. Russia is increasingly recruiting men from abroad, including former Soviet republics and nations in the Middle East, South Asia and Africa, to replenish its depleted ranks, avoiding another politically risky mobilization within Russia itself.
Military graves are now a visible feature across Ukraine, marked with blue and yellow national flags, often bearing images of soldiers in uniform. Reports indicate mothers continue to search for sons who have not returned from battle, often hoping they are held as prisoners of war in Russia, where access for organizations like the Red Cross remains severely restricted.
Russia currently occupies around 20% of Ukrainian territory, having illegally annexed Crimea in 2014. However, progress following the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, has been slow. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte recently likened Moscow’s advance to “the speed of a garden snail.” Over the past two years, Russian forces have advanced only about 50 kilometers in the Donetsk region, locked in an attritional battle for key fortified positions.
The nature of the war has evolved into a bloody war of position along a 1,200-kilometer front line, a stark contrast to the initial rapid advances of Russia’s blitzkrieg and Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the autumn of 2022. The proliferation of drones has fundamentally altered the battlefield, making it virtually impossible to deploy significant troop numbers secretly.
Ukraine has relied heavily on drones to offset Moscow’s firepower and stall its advance. Russia has significantly expanded its drone operations, introducing models with greater range connected by optical cables to circumvent electronic jamming, extending the strike zone to 50 kilometers from the front line. This has created a landscape interwoven with fiber optic cables. The combination of high-tech drones and trench warfare reminiscent of World War I has resulted in small groups of infantry, often just two or three soldiers, attempting to penetrate enemy positions in cities devastated by heavy Russian artillery.
This winter, Ukraine has faced what officials describe as the most challenging period since the start of the war. Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, causing power outages in Kyiv, where residents have experienced only a few hours of electricity per day during frigid temperatures. Moscow is increasingly targeting power lines to disrupt energy transmission and isolate sections of the Ukrainian power grid.
Ukraine has responded with long-range drone strikes against oil refineries and other energy facilities deep within Russian territory, aiming to reduce Moscow’s export revenues. Ukrainian drones and missiles have sunk several Russian warships in the Black Sea, forcing Moscow to withdraw its fleet from occupied Crimea to Novorossiysk. A daring operation, codenamed “Web,” saw Ukraine use drones launched from trucks to strike several military air bases with strategic bombers on Russian territory, a move seen as a humiliating blow to the Kremlin.
The European Union, along with its 27 member states, is the largest provider of financial, economic, military, and humanitarian support to Ukraine, having provided €194.9 billion in assistance since the start of the Russian aggression. This includes €104.5 billion in financial, economic, and humanitarian aid, €69.7 billion in military support, €17 billion in support for refugees in the EU, and €3.7 billion in revenue from immobilized Russian assets.
In December, EU leaders agreed to provide Ukraine with a €90 billion loan through EU-backed loans on capital markets. On February 4, 2026, the Council reached agreement on its position regarding the legal framework for disbursing the loan.
US President Donald Trump, who once pledged to end the war in a single day, is now calling for a cessation of hostilities. However, mediation efforts are hampered by diametrically opposed demands. Putin insists Ukraine withdraw its forces from the Donetsk region, relinquish its NATO aspirations, limit its army, and grant official status to the Russian language – conditions Kyiv rejects. Russia has left the door open to Ukraine’s eventual EU membership but firmly rules out the deployment of European peacekeeping forces as part of any agreement.
Zelenskyy insists on a ceasefire along the current line of contact, but Putin rejects a truce and demands a comprehensive peace agreement. The territorial issue remains central to the Kremlin’s demands, but the war has a broader goal: to create a Ukraine entirely within Russia’s sphere of influence and not perceived as “anti-Russia.”
Ukraine and its allies accuse Putin of stalling negotiations while seizing more territory. The Kremlin accuses Kyiv and its European supporters of attempting to undermine a potential agreement reached between Trump and Putin at their meeting in Alaska. Both Putin and Zelenskyy have sought to court Trump’s favor, with Zelenskyy signaling a willingness to hold elections, even though they are prohibited under martial law, and potentially a referendum on a peace agreement once a ceasefire is established and security guarantees are secured.
A swift agreement appears unlikely. While Putin demands Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Donetsk region, a condition Zelenskyy firmly rejects, the prospects for a breakthrough remain dim. The war and Western sanctions are increasingly straining the Russian economy, with growth stalled due to persistent inflation and labor shortages. However, Russian factories have increased weapons production, and the government has shielded key social groups, such as soldiers and industrial workers, from severe hardship.
