December 17, 2023 22:30 PM
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Negotiations for Ukraine’s EU accession begin, Zelenskiy’s “big victory” may be just self-consolation
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On the 14th local time, the President of the European Council, Michel, issued a statement to the media on the launch of EU accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova.
Although the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has drawn some attention, the Ukraine crisis remains a core issue at the final 2023 EU summit. In addition to the Ukraine crisis itself dominating the agenda, other topics such as “enlargement and reform,” “medium and long-term budget assessment,” and “security and defense” are also closely related to the Ukraine crisis.
More than a month before the summit, the European Commission proposed to start EU accession negotiations with Ukraine within the year and made a lot of noise about this, but Hungary, Austria, Slovakia and other countries opposed to varying degrees. Eighteen months after Ukraine became a “candidate country” for EU membership, whether EU leaders can reach a consensus on “opening EU accession talks with Ukraine” has become the most suspenseful and the focus of attention during this summit.
In order to obtain the political asylum of becoming an EU member state as soon as possible and the economic and security benefits that come with it, Ukraine formally applied for EU membership on the fourth day after r conflict began, and asked to follow “special procedures.” Since then, Ukraine has continued to exert “moral” and diplomatic pressure on the EU, and tried to control the pace of EU accession. He got the status of “candidate country” four months after submitting his application, and then asked to start EU accession negotiations within 2023. This The amazing “efficiency” reflects the “speciality” Ukraine access to the European Union.
However, the fact that the EU accepts Ukraine is a dynamic process where the interests of all parties compete. In the early days of Ukraine’s bid to join the European Union, the most active driving force within the EU was the countries of Central and Eastern Europe that were geographically adjacent and psychologically shared the same hatred. However, after the issue of agricultural exports caused “discord” between Ukraine and some Central and Eastern European countries, at the critical moment of launching EU accession negotiations, Western European countries have maintained a more consistent supportive stance.
Against the background of the current profound changes in the Ukrainian crisis, starting the EU accession negotiations as soon as possible has become a product of what the EU and Ukraine want. There are three main factors affecting the EU accession process for Ukraine:
First, there is the interconnection between the general situation of the Ukrainian crisis and the accession of Ukraine to the European Union. Currently, Ukraine is in trouble on the battlefield and US aid and European aid to Ukraine is very low. The political need for Ukraine to “turn positive” even in the EU more urgent. For the EU, as it cannot meet Ukraine’s aid needs, providing symbolic political support can also have a comforting effect and is also an opportunity to show a tough stance against Russia collectively.
The second is the balance between the “special procedures” that Ukraine wants to have for joining the EU, the original rules and procedures of the EU, and the interests of other candidate countries. The “speciality” of Ukraine’s entry into the European Union is reflected in the fact that, as a country in a state of war, its political, economic and legal status is difficult to meet the EU’s entry standards. This is the main reason for public Hungary’s opposition to the opening of Ukraine’s EU accession talks. A few days ago, Zelenskiy asked Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, who has always opposed Ukraine’s entry into the European Union, to give reasons for his opposition, and he believed that Orban had no reason to oppose, and “special procedures” were Orban reasoned. If the so-called “special procedure” is used to give preferential treatment to Ukraine, it will undermine the principle of fairness in joining the European Union. It will be particularly unfair to countries that have been waiting for years. many and that they have not had until now. the right to negotiate. This is also the main reason for opposition from Austria and other countries.
The third is the connection between the original internal conflict of the EU and the accession of Ukraine to the EU. In order to “respond to geopolitical challenges”, it is becoming a consensus within the EU to complete further large-scale enlargement before 2030. However, in the specific process of enlargement, there are issues such as which direction takes priority, which countries come first, and which standards apply are all about conflicts of interest within the EU Some EU countries will also take the opportunity to use the enlargement issue to meet their own needs.
After some fighting and bargaining, the EU summit finally voted with 26 votes in favor and 1 abstention, and approved the opening of EU accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, giving Georgia candidate country status, and promised start negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina and other countries as soon as possible once the conditions are met Package of decisions for EU accession negotiations.
This seems to be an outcome that all parties want and are satisfied with – Ukraine has achieved the diplomatic goal it wanted, which Zelensky called a “big victory”, which is clearly having an impact specifically on the morale of its people An encouraging effect. The EU has fulfilled its “political commitment” to Ukraine and maintained its outward image of universal unity. Hungary benefited from the EU’s unfreezing of some financial allocations ahead of the summit, although both sides denied there was any link between this move and the fact that Hungary eventually skipped EU accession talks in Ukraine.
However, Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations, which were combined in this approach of “everyone takes what he needs”, are not without costs and consequences.
One of the costs is that the bargaining chips between the EU and its member states have expired. In the subsequent discussion on providing 50 billion euros in aid to Ukraine in the next four years, the EU failed to come to an agreement and could only wait for another game in the coming year.
The second price is that, while Hungary’s abstention has maintained the unity and dignity of the EU, the backroom deal with Hungary has clearly undermined other EU principles. This provides a precedent for other countries to take similar measures to force the EU to make concessions in the future. It will be more difficult for the EU to maintain the integrity of its principles.
At the same time, this will also have consequences for Ukraine’s own EU accession process. Opening EU accession negotiations is only the first step. There is still a long way to go before the real “status transformation”. Even if negotiations are officially launched at the next EU summit in March 2024, it will still depend on the situation Ukraine Crisis by then How can the EU still have enough political will to move forward though worst of continuing internal divisions?
Perhaps Zelenskiy’s so-called “great victory” is nothing more than self-consolation.
(Cui Hongjian, Professor, Institute of Advanced Studies in Regional and Global Governance, Beijing University of Foreign Studies. Source: China Net)
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