Unemployment Rising: Near 9-Year High After Recent Improvement
- Economists predict Stats NZ data, due November 5, will show unemployment increasing to 5.3%, signaling continued economic weakness despite signs of stabilization.
- New Zealand's unemployment rate is projected to reach 5.3% in the latest quarterly data, marking the highest level as the December quarter of 2016.
- This anticipated rise comes amidst a broader context of economic slowdown, with the country experiencing a decline in GDP in three of the last five quarters (1News).
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new Zealand Unemployment Rate Expected to Rise to Nine-Year high
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Economists predict Stats NZ data, due November 5, will show unemployment increasing to 5.3%, signaling continued economic weakness despite signs of stabilization.
Unemployment Set to Climb
New Zealand’s unemployment rate is projected to reach 5.3% in the latest quarterly data, marking the highest level as the December quarter of 2016. Stats NZ is scheduled to release the quarterly labour market numbers on November 5, 2023 (Stats NZ). The current rate stands at 5.2% for the three months ended September 2023.
This anticipated rise comes amidst a broader context of economic slowdown, with the country experiencing a decline in GDP in three of the last five quarters (1News). While the labour market typically lags behind other economic indicators in responding to recessionary pressures, economists are observing signs of stabilization.
Expert Analysis and Contributing Factors
Westpac senior economist michael Gordon notes that employment growth is expected to remain flat for the quarter, despite some early indications of market stabilization (Interest.co.nz). He also suggests that a decline in youth participation in the workforce is likely mitigating the extent of the unemployment rate increase.
Several factors contribute to this outlook. Beyond the overall economic slowdown, trends in employment indicators such as participation and underutilisation rates have been consistently declining over the past two years.This suggests a weakening demand for labour and increasing difficulty for individuals to find employment.
Ancient Unemployment Rates in new Zealand
The following table illustrates New Zealand’s unemployment rate over the past five years, providing context for the anticipated increase:
| Quarter | Unemployment Rate (%) |
|---|---|
| Dec 2018 | 4.3 |
| Dec 2019 | 4.2 |
| Dec 2020 | 5.0 |
| dec 2021 | 3.2 |
| Dec 2022 | 3.4 |
| Mar 2023 | 3.2 |
| Jun 2023 | 3.6 |
| Sep 2023 | 5.2 |