US aims to block Iran’s arms parts supply chain Blocking oil exports puts pressure on rising oil prices Guardian: “Not to retaliate against Israel” Israel-Iran war of words instead of direct response
Although Israel has not yet decided on the level of counter-offense to the Iranian airstrike on the 13th, the United States and the European Union (EU) have decided to impose additional economic sanctions on Iran within the next few days. This is interpreted as an intention to prevent a war from escalating by calming Israel down through diplomatic and economic responses from the international community before Israel engages in unexpected military actions such as airstrikes on Iranian territory.
However, the parties involved, Israel and Iran, have publicly declared their will to retaliate, so the clouds of war in the Middle East are still dark. Israel continues its battle with the pro-Iranian armed groups Hamas and Hezbollah and has also resumed airstrikes against Rafah, the southernmost part of the Gaza Strip, where refugees are gathered.
● US and EU sanctions on Iran… Appease Israel
US White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in a statement on the 16th, “The US will impose new sanctions on Iran’s missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (drone) manufacturing programs, etc.” and “sanctions on organizations that support the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Ministry of Defense of Iran “We also plan to add it,” he said.
These sanctions are focused on reducing Iran’s military capabilities. The New York Times explained, “This is a way to deal a blow to Iran by blocking the supply of key components needed to make weapons.”
In a statement, Sullivan also emphasized, “Allies and partners will soon join forces to impose their own sanctions to hold Iran accountable for its malign actions.” In fact, on the same day, the EU held an emergency video conference attended by foreign ministers from 27 member countries to discuss sanctions against Iran.
Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security, said after the meeting that “some member states have requested the expansion of sanctions on Iran.” In particular, the majority held that arms and funds flowing to pro-Iranian armed groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and Iraqi and Syrian militias should be blocked.
It seems that the reason the US and the EU brought out the sanctions card so quickly is more to ‘appease Israel’ than to put pressure on Iran. The Guardian, an English daily, assessed that “this sends a message to Israel not to participate in military retaliation that could lead to an all-out war.”
It is also known that the United States is considering sanctions that would limit Iran’s ability to export oil, which is considered a key source of money. However, this is not an easy choice for the Joe Biden administration before the presidential election in November, as it is very likely to cause an increase in international oil prices.
● Israel and Iran continue their war of words
Although the international community is trying to prevent a war from escalating, Israel and Iran are increasing tensions by pouring out ‘harsh words’.
On this day, the Israeli army uncovered the remains of a ballistic missile launched by Iran from the Julis military base in the north. Spokesman Daniel Hagari said at the event, “Iran has thrown a ring of fire across Israel,” and “We will respond in the way we choose.”
Some interpret Israel’s failure to reveal its specific response as a form of psychological warfare aimed at destabilizing Iran. The Israeli media Times of Israel quoted a war cabinet official as saying, “Iran will keep us guessing about our response.”
Iran also continued its hardline stance. According to Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency, President Ebrahim Raisi warned in a phone call with the Emir of Qatar on the 15th, “Israel will face a painful response if it takes even the smallest step against Iranian interests.” Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani also said, “There is no gap of 12 days between the next attacks.” The Iranian air attack on the 13th took place 12 days after Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Syria on the 1st.
On the 16th, the Israeli army carried out an air attack against Hezbollah’s elite special forces, the Radwan Army. The army said, “Two people were killed, including commanders in charge of rockets and missiles Ismail Youssef Baz and Muhammad Shahuri.” According to Reuters, Israeli tanks advanced again into the Beit Hanoun area in the northern Gaza Strip, and airstrikes also resumed on Rafah in the south.
Cairo = Correspondent Kim Ki-yoon pep@donga.com
Washington = Reporter Moon Byeong-ki weappon@donga.com
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