US experts evaluated that talks between the two countries to improve the US extended deterrence operation have begun to emerge in response to the US defense secretary’s agreement to deploy US military strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula in a timely manner in as needed. The defense minister’s warning that North Korea’s use of nuclear weapons would lead to the end of the Kim Jong-un regime emphasized both countries’ superior military capabilities, but it was also said that North Korea would not take this warning seriously. Reporter Lee Jo-eun reports.
Sumi Terry, director of Asia at the Woodrow Wilson Center, said the United States and South Korea are focused on developing measures to improve the United States’ extended deterrence and strengthen deterrence postures against the growing threat from North Korea.
[녹취: 테리 국장] “They are focused on ways to improve the US’s extended deterrence and strengthen the deterrence posture against North Korea’s growing threats. They need to provide some sort of reassurance to the public. They need to send a stern message to North Korea. So naturally, they talked about deploying strategic military assets to Korea … my expectation is that they will likely stay as long as North Korea continues its provocations. “
In a phone call with VOA on the 4th, Director Terry said, regarding the US-Korea Security Council (SCM) held the day before, that the US and South Korea need to give the public confidence in extended deterrence and send a strong message to North Korea.
Therefore, it is natural for the US and South Korean defense ministers to discuss the use of US strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula in this SCM.
Director Terry also predicted that US military strategic assets currently deployed in South Korea will be maintained as long as North Korean provocations continue.
Earlier, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop released a joint statement on the 3rd after the 54th SCM held at the US Department of Defense near Washington DC, which included measures to improve US extended deterrence operation.
The joint statement said that “the United States is committed to strengthening cooperation with South Korea to continue deploying and training strategic assets in the region in a timely and effective manner to deter and respond to North Korea and to strengthen regional security.”
[공동성명] “The United States committed to strengthening coordination with the ROK to continue deploying and exercising strategic assets in the region in a timely and effective manner to deter and respond to the DPRK and enhance regional security.”
David Maxwell, senior researcher at the Institute for the Defense of Democracies, assessed that the defense ministers of the United States and South Korea have clearly shown that the mechanism of the discussion between the two countries to formulate a plan to improve the operational capability of the United States’ extended deterrence is to work effective through this MPA.
In addition to known strategic assets such as the US fifth generation fighter and the Ronald Reagan nuclear aircraft carrier, as part of efforts to increase the reliability and operational power of extended deterrence, various types of US strategy, including long-range missiles and ballistic missiles and launched by submarines He explained that the assets will continue to be used not only in Korea, but also in Japan and Guam.
[녹취:맥스웰 선임연구원] “Fifth generation aircraft, Ronald Reagan’s carrier battle group, we also have assets although that is not seen. those are long-range missiles, submarine launched ballistic missiles… We will see those strategic assets continuously deployed not only to Korea, but also in Japan and Guam. a share of some strategic assets that will always be ready for use for Korea … What I imagine is that both countries know specifically what assets are always ready for use for Korea. “
Additionally, regarding the US and South Korea’s decision to manage US strategic assets on and around the Korean Peninsula to have an effect equivalent to regular use, “there must have been a specific non-disclosure agreement to allocate a portion of specific strategic assets ready to be. be sent to Korea at any time.” he added.
However, it is also noted that increasing the frequency of deployment of US strategic assets is not enough to deter the North Korean threat.
Bruce Bennett, a senior researcher at the Rand Institute, pointed out that what was published in this SCM is problematic as North Korea’s missile tests tend to be reactive rather than proactive, and that this is not an appropriate deterrent.
[녹취:베넷 선임연구원] “It’s not enough. But part of the problem with these announcements is that they tend to be reactive rather than proactive… That’s not prevention. The way you achieve deterrence is you proactively go to North Korea. in advance, and tell North Korea. Look, you had to stop these missile tests. If you don’t stop these missile tests. Then we’re going to put a B 52 over South Korea every other week or something like that. You give them a threat beforehand. For the threat to be effective, it must be very clear. And we will have to be ready to carry out what we have threatened.”
For example, if North Korea does not stop missile testing, it warns South Korea that it will deploy a US B-52 strategic bomber every other week.
Experts also noted that the SCM statement included a statement that North Korea’s use of nuclear weapons would lead to the end of the Kim Jong-un regime.
Senior Researcher Maxwell said that it should be noted that this phrase is not just rhetoric, meaning that if North Korea attacks South Korea, Japan, or the United States, the United States will implement a defense plan to defend South Korea. exaggeration, he said, will lead to the end.
He emphasized that the combined forces of the United States and the Republic of Korea were much better than the North Korean army militarily, so if North Korea attacked, they would be defeated and destroyed, which meant the end of the Kim family regime.
[녹취:맥스웰 선임연구원] “What is important to note is that these words are not rhetoric. They are not hyperbole. These are facts. And then the fact is, if North Korea attacks South Korea or Japan or the United States, it means that we will implement the defense plan to defend South Korea and that will lead to the end of the regime … So everyone needs to understand that the combined forces of South Korea and the United States are so far militarily superior to the North Korean People’s Army as if they attack, they will be defeated, destroyed and that means the end of the Kim family regime.
Terry understands that the US and South Korea want to make strong statements to deter North Korea given North Korea’s focus on tactical nuclear weapons and its adoption of a pre-emptive nuclear policy, but he does not believe that North Korea’s use is the end of the world. Korea of nuclear weapons. He said he did not know if North Korea would take it seriously because it was not the first time the phrase had appeared.
[녹취:테리 국장] “Given all that, I can understand why they want to come up with very strong language to stop North Korea. However, it is not clear to me that the North Koreans will take it seriously because this is a kind of language, they have heard before… It is very logical to me that North Korea will carry out 7th nuclear tests, because firstly they argue that the external environment is actually favorable for North Korea because China and Russia are not really playing ball in North Korea…Secondly, because we have to the international community respond in some form to these missile tests. So add the nuclear weapons test, and then we only have to respond once. So from North Korea’s perspective, the timing makes sense. “
Director Terry said the possibility of North Korea’s seventh nuclear test remains, saying that China and Russia are on North Korea’s side, the external environment is working in North Korea’s favor, and the international community must respond in some way to Launch North Korea’s successive missile test He said that this is the right time to conduct a nuclear test from North Korea’s point of view, because even if North Korea’s nuclear test is added, the response of the international community will end one after the another.
This is Jo Eun Lee from VOA News.
