US Labor Market: Stable But Weak – Bloomberg Analysis
- The US labor market is displaying increasing signs of a slowdown, even as the unemployment rate remains historically low. Recent data, compiled from various sources due to the...
- Consumer expectations regarding employment reached an all-time low in August.
- A positive aspect of the current labor market is that the slowdown in employment hasn't yet translated into a surge in layoffs.The US unemployment rate is projected to...
US labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling Amid Government Shutdown
Table of Contents
The US labor market is displaying increasing signs of a slowdown, even as the unemployment rate remains historically low. Recent data, compiled from various sources due to the ongoing government shutdown preventing the release of official figures, paints a picture of weakening demand and moderating wage growth.
employment Outlook & Consumer Confidence
Consumer expectations regarding employment reached an all-time low in August. A September survey by the Conference Board echoed this pessimistic outlook. While job site Glassdoor reported a slight recovery in worker confidence in September, it remains considerably below 2022 peaks.
Unemployment Rate & Layoffs
A positive aspect of the current labor market is that the slowdown in employment hasn’t yet translated into a surge in layoffs.The US unemployment rate is projected to be just 4.3% in September,remaining historically low despite rising since the start of the year. The Chicago FedS real-time unemployment rate forecast showed similar numbers, though policymakers noted they couldn’t access official statistics due to the government closure.
Data from Challenger Gray and Christmas indicates a reduction in both recruitment and firing, with September’s announced employment plans at their lowest level since 2011.
Related Article: US labor market stagnates sharply, companies are shrinking in hiring and firing – Challenger survey
Wage Growth
Wage growth continues, averaging above inflation as mid-2023, but the gap is narrowing. ADP statistics show slowing wage increases for job changers, with wages for those remaining in their positions largely unchanged. Liberio’s data reveals an even more pronounced trend, with new job offer salaries falling 0.3% in September – the lowest level since March.
Original Titles: Next-Best US Jobs Data Show ‘Steady But Fragile’ Job Market (2) & US Initial Jobless Claims Edge Up to 224,000 in Goldman Analysis (excerpt)