The last remaining nuclear arms pact between the United States and Russia has expired, raising concerns about a renewed, unconstrained nuclear arms race. While both countries have expressed a willingness to begin new arms control talks, significant obstacles remain, including the involvement of China and accusations of covert nuclear testing.
According to a Kremlin statement released Friday, Russian and U.S. Negotiators discussed the expiration of the New START treaty and agreed on the urgent need to launch new arms control negotiations. The discussions took place in the United Arab Emirates, alongside broader talks concerning a potential peace settlement in Ukraine.
“There is an understanding and they talked about it in Abu Dhabi, that both parties will take responsible positions and both parties realize the need to start talks on the issue as soon as possible,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
The New START treaty, which limited each side to no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers, expired on Thursday. This marks the first time in more than half a century that there are no formal limits on the size of the U.S. And Russian nuclear arsenals. Russian President Vladimir Putin had indicated a willingness to adhere to the treaty’s limits for another year, contingent on a reciprocal commitment from Washington. However, the U.S. Has insisted that any new agreement must include China.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated the American position, stating that an arms control arrangement excluding China would be detrimental to U.S. And allied security. “An arms control arrangement that does not account for China’s buildup, which Russia is supporting, will undoubtedly leave the United States and our allies less safe,” he said.
The U.S. Has also accused China of conducting covert nuclear explosive tests, allegations that Beijing has vehemently denied. Thomas DiNanno, a top U.S. Diplomat in charge of arms control, claimed the U.S. Government is aware of Chinese nuclear explosive tests, including preparations for tests with yields in the hundreds of tons. He further alleged that China attempted to conceal these tests, violating commitments under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.
Ambassador Shen Jian of China rejected these accusations as “false narratives and unfounded accusations,” asserting China’s adherence to its commitment to suspend nuclear testing. He criticized the U.S. For attempting to shift responsibility for nuclear disarmament and promote “nuclear hegemony.” Shen also stated that China would not participate in nuclear disarmament negotiations at this stage, citing the disparity in nuclear capabilities between China and the U.S. And Russia.
The expiration of New START follows years of strained relations between the U.S. And Russia, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In 2023, Putin suspended Moscow’s participation in the treaty, citing U.S. Inspections of Russian nuclear sites while Washington and its NATO allies supported Ukraine. However, the Kremlin maintained it would continue to respect the treaty’s limits.
Despite the expiration of New START, both countries have agreed to reestablish high-level military-to-military dialogue. This decision followed a meeting between senior officials in Abu Dhabi, marking a resumption of communication that had been suspended since 2021.
Peskov dismissed reports of a possible informal agreement to observe the treaty’s limits for six months, stating that any extension would need to be formal. “It’s hard to imagine any informal extension in this sphere,” he said.
The New START treaty, originally signed in 2010 by then-President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, was the latest in a series of agreements aimed at limiting nuclear arsenals between the two countries, dating back to the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT I) in 1972. The treaty included provisions for on-site inspections to verify compliance, but these were halted in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and were never resumed.
Former President Donald Trump had previously attempted to negotiate a three-way nuclear pact involving China, but Beijing rebuffed these efforts. China has consistently maintained that its nuclear arsenal is significantly smaller than those of the U.S. And Russia and has called for the U.S. To resume nuclear talks with Russia.
The situation remains fluid, with the future of nuclear arms control uncertain. The reestablishment of military-to-military dialogue offers a potential avenue for progress, but significant challenges remain in bridging the gap between the positions of the U.S., Russia, and China.
