Voter confidence in the integrity of U.S. Elections has plummeted across the political spectrum, raising alarm bells as the nation heads toward a pivotal midterm election. A new survey from the UC San Diego Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections reveals a significant decline in trust, fueled by partisan rhetoric and anxieties over election security.
Just 60% of eligible voters surveyed between mid-December and mid-January expressed confidence that midterm votes will be counted fairly – a steep drop from the 77% who felt that way shortly after the presidential election. This erosion of trust isn’t confined to one side of the aisle; it’s a “parallel movement in this polarized era,” according to Thad Kousser, one of the center’s co-directors.
The decline is particularly striking when broken down by party affiliation. Confidence among Republicans has fallen from 82% after the election to 65% in the recent survey. Democrats have seen a similar drop, from 77% to 64%, while independents have experienced a decline from 73% to 57%. This broad-based loss of faith suggests a systemic issue extending beyond the typical post-election shifts in confidence based on outcomes.
The roots of this distrust are diverging along party lines. Half of Republicans cited concerns about mail ballot fraud and non-citizen voting, despite a lack of evidence supporting these claims. Conversely, nearly a quarter of Democrats expressed worries about eligible voters being intimidated or unable to cast ballots. These anxieties are being amplified by prominent figures and ongoing political battles.
Former President Trump and his allies continue to question ballot security, while Democrats are warning against what they see as unconstitutional federal intervention in election processes. Concerns are also mounting over partisan redistricting efforts, with both parties accused of manipulating district boundaries to gain an advantage. The unprecedented mid-decade redistricting seen in several states, including California and Texas, has further fueled perceptions of unfairness.
Adding to the unease are reports and suggestions of increased federal presence at polling places. The possibility of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents being deployed to monitor voting locations has sparked particular concern, especially among minority communities. According to the survey, 44% of Democrats, 34% of independents, and 30% of Republicans believe it is likely that ICE agents will be present at voting locations in their area.
Perceptions of the impact of such a presence also vary significantly. Half of Democrats believe an ICE presence would diminish their confidence in accurate vote counting, while nearly half of Republicans feel it would bolster their confidence. Similar disparities exist across racial groups, with Asian American and Hispanic voters expressing greater concern about intimidation.
The survey also revealed that a significant percentage of voters – 46% of Black voters and 46% of Hispanic voters – expect to face intimidation while voting. These fears are not unfounded, given recent events such as the FBI raid and seizure of ballots in Fulton County, Georgia, a location frequently targeted by Trump’s unsubstantiated claims of election fraud.
Election law experts warn that this erosion of trust poses a serious threat to the health of American democracy. Rick Hasen, director of the Safeguarding Democracy Project at UCLA Law, emphasizes the need to fortify protections for fair elections rather than succumb to chaos. Sophia Lin Lakin, director of the Voting Rights Project at the ACLU, stresses the importance of continued voter participation as the best defense against these challenges.
Despite the anxieties, some observers remain optimistic about voter turnout. Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant, believes that many voters recognize the high stakes of the midterms and will turn out in large numbers. However, he acknowledges that the loss of trust is a deeply concerning issue, potentially undermining the foundations of democratic governance.
Even prominent figures like Senator Adam Schiff () are urging increased voter participation as a safeguard against potential threats. Schiff emphasized that “the remedy here is to become more involved, not less,” and that “the voters” are the ultimate protectors of the country.
As the midterms approach, the message from election experts and advocates is clear: despite the challenges and anxieties, the most effective way to safeguard democracy is through active participation. Voters are encouraged to double-check their registration, make a plan to vote, and resist the urge to be discouraged by concerns about election integrity. The future of American politics may well depend on it.
