On December 28, a strike by shopkeepers in Tehran’s markets ignited protests that rapidly spread far beyond their original setting. What followed was not a short-lived wave of unrest, but a nationwide rupture whose scale and consequences now make a return to the previous status quo virtually impossible.
Nearly a month later, estimates point to at least 36,500 people killed in clashes and crackdowns across more than 400 cities and 4,000 separate sites of confrontation. The magnitude marks a turning point in the country’s modern history.
Even before the protests began, Iran was already under severe strain: an economy caught in persistent inflation, an energy system stretched beyond capacity, environmental stress that had begun to affect daily life, and security structures weakened by external shocks and internal attrition.
The events that unfolded after december 28 did not create these pressures. They exposed them, intensified them, and fused them into a single, compounding crisis.
What the data now show is not simply escalation, but irreversibility.
An economy with no cushion left
Long before markets closed and strikes spread, Iran’s economy had entered a phase of chronic instability.
Official figures put unemployment at just over seven percent, but nearly 40 percent of the unemployed were university graduates, a mismatch that had been widening for years.The national currency continued to lose value, the Tehran stock exchange spent most days in decline, and liquidity pressures rippled through the private sector.
Inflation was no longer episodic. point-to-point inflation rose from about 39 percent in early spring to nearly 53 percent by late autumn.
Even households traditionally considered middle-income were cutting back on basic goods. Reports of installment-based purchases for food items, including fruit and nuts, had become routine.
Fiscal policy offered little relief. The government’s proposed budget projected wage increases of 20 percent, well below the officially acknowledged inflation rate.
Lawmakers rejected the bill outright, citing unrealistic revenue assumptions and a growing gap between costs and household incomes. Similar gaps in previous budgets had already pushed salaried workers and pensioners further into precarity.
The banking sector added another layer of fragility. One major private bank formally acknowledged insolvency weeks before the protests began.
Across the system, only a small number of banks met international capital adequacy standards, while several large institutions showed negative ratios. Credit expansion continued largely through money printing, reinforcing inflation rather than growth.
when markets shut down after December 28, they di
Adversarial Research & Verification Report - January 27, 2026
Table of Contents
Source assessment: The provided text originates from an untrusted source. All claims require independent verification.
Breaking News Check (as of 2026/01/27 17:06:58): The situation described appears to relate to the ongoing conflict in Ethiopia, specifically concerning the Tigray War and it’s aftermath. Recent reports indicate continued instability and humanitarian crisis, but a definitive “systemic break” as described is not universally confirmed in reporting. The situation remains highly fluid.
Verification Results & Updates:
* Diplomatic Defections: reports of diplomatic defections and asylum requests by Ethiopian officials have been documented, especially following the escalation of the Tigray conflict in late 2020 and throughout 2021-2023. reuters reported on an Ethiopian diplomat seeking asylum in the US in August 2021, citing concerns over the Tigray War. Though, the frequency and scale of these defections as of January 2026 require further investigation.
* Violence & Death Toll: the text references a significant increase in violence after December 28th (year unspecified, assumed to be 2023 or 2024). Determining the accuracy of the death toll is extremely difficult due to information restrictions. Human Rights Watch continues to document atrocities and civilian casualties in the Tigray region and surrounding areas. Estimates vary widely, and access for independent verification remains limited.
* Internet Disruptions: Prolonged internet shutdowns have been a consistent feature of the conflict in Ethiopia, particularly in Tigray and Oromia regions. Access Now has documented numerous instances of internet shutdowns and their impact on human rights.
* Diaspora Mobilization: Ethiopian diaspora communities globally have been actively involved in advocacy, fundraising, and lobbying efforts related to the conflict.
* “No Going Back”: The claim of “no going back” is a subjective assessment. While the conflict has fundamentally altered the political landscape, the possibility of some form of reconciliation or political settlement remains, though increasingly challenging.
Ethiopia: Internal Crisis and regional Implications
ethiopia’s Political Instability
Ethiopia is currently experiencing significant political instability, stemming primarily from the Tigray War and related conflicts in other regions, including Oromia and Amhara.The U.S. Department of State provides ongoing updates on the political situation in Ethiopia, highlighting concerns about human rights and the humanitarian crisis. The conflict began in November 2020 when forces from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) attacked a federal military base.
Detail: The conflict quickly escalated into a full-scale war, marked by widespread atrocities committed by all sides. The Ethiopian government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, initially framed the conflict as a law enforcement operation, but it soon became a protracted and brutal struggle. The war has had devastating consequences for civilians, leading to widespread displacement, famine, and a breakdown of essential services.
Example: In November 2022, a peace agreement was signed in Pretoria, South Africa, aiming to end the Tigray War. African Arguments provides analysis of the Pretoria agreement, noting the challenges to its full implementation.
Regional Partnerships and International Response
Ethiopia has sought to strengthen its relationships with regional partners, including Eritrea and Somalia, while negotiations with Western powers have been strained due to concerns over human rights and the handling of the conflict. The Council on Foreign relations offers analysis of Ethiopia’s foreign policy, detailing its complex relationships with neighboring countries and international actors.
Detail: The Ethiopian government has accused Western powers of interference in its internal affairs and of supporting the TPLF. Western powers, in turn, have criticized the Ethiopian government for its human rights record and for obstructing humanitarian access to conflict-affected areas. The involvement of Eritrea in the Tigray War has further complicated the situation, with accusations of Eritrean forces committing atrocities alongside Ethiopian troops.
Example: In February 2023, the united States imposed sanctions on individuals and entities involved in the conflict in Ethiopia. The U.S. Department of the Treasury details these sanctions, citing human rights abuses and obstruction of humanitarian aid.
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