Why Iran’s Axis of Resistance Survives Despite U.S. and Israeli Strikes

The regional network of armed groups aligned with Iran known as the axis of resistance remains active despite a sustained U.S.-Israel military campaign, according to reporting by War on the Rocks.

Despite years of intense pressure, targeted killings, infrastructure degradation, economic sanctions, and political isolation, these armed groups still retain the capacity to execute military operations across the Middle East. According to War on the Rocks, operations have persisted in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, puzzling observers who expected the network to disintegrate under sustained assault.

Regional Attacks and Retaliatory Actions

In the wake of the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Hizballah launched a series of rockets and drones into northern Israel, according to War on the Rocks. Additional reporting from the same outlet notes an attack on a British air base in Cyprus that allegedly originated from Lebanon.

In Iraq, axis-aligned groups fired drones toward Erbil’s airport and targeted U.S. bases or interests in neighboring Kuwait and Jordan, while demonstrators in Baghdad pushed toward the U.S. embassy. Meanwhile, in Yemen, the axis-aligned Houthis issued strong statements of solidarity with Iran, condemning U.S. and Israeli actions, as reported by War on the Rocks.

Survival Adaptation and Fractured Leadership

Sustained decapitation campaigns—including the January 2020 killing of Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and subsequent operations intensifying after October 2023—have not eliminated these movements. Instead, according to War on the Rocks, these actions have fragmented their leadership and decision-making structures.

The limited coherence that once underpinned Iran’s model of coordinated regional expansion has eroded. As Tehran has engaged in direct confrontations on its own, regional partners must navigate an uncertain landscape driven by individual logics of survival, according to War on the Rocks.

Divergent Strategies Among Member Factions

Actors embedded within state institutions face strong incentives to avoid destabilizing escalation that could jeopardize domestic political gains, leading to a lower tolerance for risk. By contrast, a smaller set of factions with fewer institutional stakes and stronger transnational commitments view confrontation as necessary to maintain authority, according to War on the Rocks.

This division explains actions such as Hizballah’s attacks following Operation Epic Fury or Iraqi armed groups targeting U.S. bases despite expectations of strong retaliation. Consequently, the network remains divided over how far to escalate operations, producing adversaries that are weaker as a coordinated alliance yet more adaptive and unpredictable, as detailed by War on the Rocks.