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Will Korea beat Uruguay… AI “11-25% chance of winning”

On the 4th day of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, which will be held on the 23rd, the Korean national football team will play the first group stage against the Uruguayan national team.

Before this, the interest of the fans is of course focused on whether they will be able to win against Uruguay and establish a bridgehead to progress to the round of 16, but most of them feel that it is not easy to achieve the desired result.

This is not simply because the Uruguayan players are ahead of the Korean players. Uruguay is ranked 14th in the FIFA rankings, the most intuitive indicator of the gap between the two teams. It is a clear stronger team than Korea, who were ranked 28th.

Looking back at the record of past clashes, Korea is completely inferior against Uruguay. Since their first clash in 1982, the Korean national football team has recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 6 losses in 8 matches against Uruguay.

Of these, they only faced two World Cups, losing 1-0 in the 1990 World Cup in Italy and 2-1 in the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.

However, rather than a game where they were one-sided inferior and lost, most of the cases were exchange attacks and they could not handle Uruguay’s offense and could not break through the Uruguayan defense camp, which entered the locked up after conceding a goal.

Nor is this conflict expected to be easy. In fact, before the opening of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, the results of AI-based match predictions conducted by various companies and organizations also show that the probability of Korea’s victory is significantly lower than the probability of defeat.

Al Jazeera’s AI Chef predicted that Korea’s chance of winning was 25%.

According to the AI ​​match prediction provided by LG U+ sports community platform Spokie, Korea’s victory against Uruguay was only 11%. The probability of a draw was 19% and the probability of losing was 70%.

AI Kachef, operated by Al Jazeera, a leading Arab broadcasting company based in Doha, Qatar, host of the World Cup, predicted a 25% chance for Korea to win. The odds of a draw are 34% and Uruguay’s odds of a win are 41%.

Based on gameplay data in the manager mode of FIFA Online 4, a soccer game developed by Nexon’s EA and served by Nexon, the result of the match between Korea and Uruguay was predicted.

Unlike other analysis cases that simply predicted match results, it is characterized by deriving a plan to efficiently target Uruguay as a result. This data analysis was conducted by research organization Nexon AI Intelligence Labs.

As a result of the analysis of matches in the manager mode of FIFA Online 4, Nexon predicted that the probability of victory for Korea was 17%.

Nexon predicted that Korea’s chance of winning against Uruguay was 17%. The odds of a draw were 30% and Uruguay’s odds of winning were 53%. It should be noted that the winning rate increased when Hongcheol and Kim Taehwan were used as left and right backs.

In addition, the main Korean attack route was developed from the right to the center. It is expected that it will be efficient to aim for a connection between a defender and an attacker, avoiding the camp of Uruguayan midfielders, which includes Bentancur, Valverde, and Arascaeta.

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On the other hand, Uruguay’s attack developed from the center to the left using the aforementioned midfielder. This was interpreted by Nexon as meaning that we should be wary of the contact play between the Uruguayan midfielder and the left striker Darwin Nunez.

The Qatar 2022 World Cup Group H match between Korea and Uruguay will be held on the 24th at 10:00 pm (Korea time) at the Education City Stadium in Alayan, Qatar.