A sprawling winter storm is poised to impact a vast swath of the Northern Tier of the United States, stretching over 1,000 miles and bringing the threat of heavy snow, ice, and disruptive travel conditions from through . The system represents a significant collision of atmospheric forces – a deep pool of moisture lifting from the south colliding with Arctic air pushing down from Canada.
The FOX Forecast Center is tracking the development of this complex system, which is expected to develop in the Northern Rockies on , strengthen as it moves across the Northern Plains, and then track toward the Great Lakes. The exact path beyond the Great Lakes remains uncertain, influencing whether areas will experience heavy snow or crippling ice.
The Upper Midwest – specifically North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Michigan – is forecast to receive moderate snowfall. While the precise impacts are still being determined, the FOX Forecast Center is growing more confident in the timing and overall strength of the storm. The system is expected to arrive late and persist through early .
This storm is fueled by an unusually high amount of moisture for this time of year, drawn from both a Pacific surge moving in from the Southwest and additional moisture from the Gulf of America. Northern Minnesota and North Dakota currently have the highest probability of significant snowfall, with potential accumulations exceeding 5–8 inches. Blizzard conditions are also a possibility in these regions, given the anticipated strong winds.
Further south, a separate but related system is already causing significant disruption. A historic 2,000-mile-wide winter storm, impacting over 245 million people from New Mexico to Maine, peaked on , unleashing heavy snow and crippling ice. This earlier storm led to over 32,000 flight cancellations and left nearly a million customers without power due to ice accumulation, particularly in the South, including the Atlanta and Nashville metropolitan areas. At least three deaths have been linked to the extreme cold associated with this system.
The current Northern Tier storm’s track will be critical in determining the type of precipitation experienced across the region. A slight shift northward could result in more rain or a rain-snow mix in parts of the Upper Midwest, while a southward shift would likely lead to higher snowfall totals. The FOX Forecast Center is closely monitoring these potential scenarios.
While the Northern Tier storm is expected to weaken by , there remains a concern for a brief window of freezing rain if a shallow layer of cold air persists near the surface while warmer air moves overhead. This could create additional hazardous conditions.
The scale of these recent winter storms – spanning over 2,000 miles and impacting more than 30 states – highlights the potential for large-scale disruptions to travel and infrastructure. The combination of heavy snow, ice, and strong winds poses a significant threat to power grids and transportation networks. The current system, while focused on the Northern Tier, builds on the widespread impacts already felt across much of the country.
The interplay of these weather systems underscores the complexity of winter storm forecasting. Small changes in atmospheric conditions can have significant consequences for precipitation type and intensity. Continued monitoring and accurate forecasting are crucial for mitigating the risks associated with these large-scale winter events.
