World Bank slashes Global growth Forecast Amid ⁣Trade Uncertainty

​‌ Updated June 10, 2025

The ​world‌ Bank has significantly lowered its global economic growth forecast, attributing the change primarily to trade uncertainty. The institution now ​projects a 2.3%‍ expansion for⁤ the⁤ global economy⁢ in ⁤2025, a​ decrease from ⁢its‌ previous estimate of 2.7%.

According‌ to the⁢ World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects ‌report, this revised figure represents the slowest rate of global⁢ growth since 2008,⁤ excluding periods of outright recession.The report⁣ emphasizes that trade uncertainty ⁤has ⁢particularly impacted ⁤the economic outlook.

Indermit Gill, senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank Group, stated ⁢that international discord,​ especially concerning trade, has disrupted policy certainties that previously ⁤contributed to poverty reduction and prosperity growth after World War II.

The World Bank also reduced its 2025 growth ‌forecast ⁢for the U.S. by 0.9 percentage points, bringing​ it down to 1.4%. Similarly, GDP expectations ⁢for the euro area were lowered by 0.3 percentage points to 0.7%.These revisions reflect concerns about ‍the impact of trade tensions on major economies.

The bank​ cautioned that further escalation of trade tensions could drive growth ⁢even lower. However, it also noted that the situation could improve if major economies ⁣reach lasting trade agreements. Resolving current ⁤trade disputes ⁢with⁣ agreements ⁢that halve tariffs could possibly ⁣boost‌ global growth by approximately 0.2 percentage points on average over ⁣2025 and 2026, according to‍ the World Bank’s analysis.

The U.S. is currently engaged‌ in trade negotiations with ‍several partners⁢ after imposing tariffs in‌ April. Recent talks ⁣led to a ⁢temporary reduction in levies between the⁣ U.S. ​and China. Negotiations⁣ between the U.S. and the European Union are ⁣also ongoing, with a‌ deadline approaching‌ for previously announced tariffs to take effect.

The Organization for ⁢Economic Co-operation and⁤ Development (OECD) ⁢has also cited trade and‌ tariff-related​ uncertainty ‍as a⁢ key factor in its decision to⁣ lower‌ global growth expectations.‌ Earlier this month,the OECD projected global growth to⁤ slow ⁣to 2.9% ‌in⁢ 2025, ‌a decrease ‌from its previous forecast of 3.1%.

What’s ‍next

The ⁤World Bank will continue to monitor​ trade negotiations ‌and‌ their impact on global economic ⁤growth,‌ adjusting ⁢its forecasts as needed. The focus remains on the potential for trade agreements to mitigate ‍the‍ negative effects of trade uncertainty and support a stronger ⁣global ‍economy.