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Wuthering Heights & Goat Lead Valentine’s Day Box Office – Weekend Forecast

The Valentine’s Day box office is heating up, led by Emerald Fennell’s reimagining of Emily Brontë’s Wuthering Heights. The Warner Bros./MRC release garnered Thursday previews of $3 million, signaling strong potential for a $40 million to $50 million four-day haul over the long Presidents’ Day weekend.

The film, starring Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi, is benefiting from a strategic release during a traditionally slow period for new films, and a Saturday Valentine’s Day that’s proving to be a significant draw. “Ordinarily, having a holiday fall on the biggest moviegoing day of the week is a negative,” notes Paul Dergarabedian, ComScore Head of Marketplace Trends, “However, this year the planets have perfectly aligned to put Valentine’s Day on a Saturday, which makes for the perfect romantic night out. And with Wuthering Heights on the marquee, there could not be a better option.”

Early indicators suggest a frontloaded weekend, typical for female-skewing titles. The film has secured bookings in premium formats including Imax, Dolby Cinema, drive-ins, and dine-in theaters, adding to potential revenue through ticket upcharges. Warner Bros. Reportedly paid $80 million for the rights to the project, fending off a larger $150 million offer from Netflix, underscoring the studio’s confidence in the material and the star power of Robbie and Elordi.

While critical reception has been somewhat divided – currently at 65% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes – the film’s social media presence is robust. RelishMix reports a reach of 381.2 million across TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook, and X, 2.5 times the average for romantic dramas. This figure surpasses the opening social media universes of recent hits like It Ends With Us (337.4M), Anyone But You (98.8M), and even Fennell’s previous work, Saltburn (213.9M).

Charli xcx is actively promoting the film and its soundtrack on social media, reaching a combined audience of over 18 million followers across her platforms. Her engagement is driving significant buzz, with multiple posts highlighting the film’s themes and aesthetic.

Beyond Wuthering Heights, Sony’s animated feature GOAT is also making a strong showing. The film earned $1 million in Thursday previews and is projected to reach $24 million over the four-day weekend. The family-friendly film is capitalizing on a lack of new animated releases since Zootopia 2 in November. Social media engagement for GOAT is also strong, at 386.3 million, exceeding the opening numbers for films like Bad Guys, Elemental, and Elio.

Amazon MGM Studios’ noir thriller Crime 101, starring Chris Hemsworth, Halle Berry, Mark Ruffalo, and Barry Keoghan, is aiming for a $14 million four-day start from 3,161 locations. The film boasts a solid 86% certified fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, exceeding the critical scores of both Wuthering Heights (65%) and GOAT (79%).

Rounding out the top five are 20th Century Studios’ Send Help, expected to earn nearly $10 million over the four days, and Angel Studios’ Solo Mio, projected to bring in $7.3 million for an 11-day cumulative gross of $17.2 million.

The success of Wuthering Heights is particularly noteworthy given the challenges of adapting classic literature for a modern audience. The film’s marketing campaign is actively targeting both established fans of the novel and younger demographics, reflecting Warner Bros.’ strategy to broaden its appeal. The studio is hoping to replicate the success of Robbie’s previous blockbuster, Barbie, by tapping into a similar cultural zeitgeist.

The box office performance of Crime 101 is also being closely watched, as Amazon MGM Studios relies on theatrical releases to offset marketing costs. The studio’s strategy of releasing only films with strong commercial potential is a departure from traditional studio models, and the success of Crime 101 will be a key indicator of its viability.

Currently, Wuthering Heights is eyeing $11 million to $12 million for today, Saturday, including the $3 million earned on Thursday. The long holiday weekend promises a competitive landscape, but Wuthering Heights appears poised to emerge as the clear winner, capitalizing on the romantic mood and the star power of its leads.

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