BEIJING – A series of high-profile purges within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has culminated in the removal of two of its most senior leaders, raising questions about the stability of China’s military leadership and the potential implications for Taiwan. The ongoing shake-up, orchestrated by Chinese President Xi Jinping, has significantly consolidated his control over the armed forces but also risks isolating him from experienced military counsel, according to analysts.
On , the PRC Ministry of National Defense announced investigations into Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and Liu Zhenli, Chief of the Joint Staff Department, citing “suspected serious violations of discipline and law.” Zhang, considered Xi Jinping’s closest ally within the military, and Liu, one of the top commanders overseeing PLA operations, were both members of the CMC – the highest military decision-making body in China.
These latest removals follow a pattern of purges that began in , initially targeting the PLA Rocket Force following investigations into equipment problems. Further purges in focused on the leadership of the PLA political work system and the second-ranking officer on the CMC, He Weidong. In October , eight additional senior military officials were removed, including Lin Xiangyang, former commander of the Eastern Theatre Command responsible for Taiwan, and Wang Houbin, former commander of the Rocket Force.
The scale of the purges is unprecedented in recent Chinese history. Xi Jinping has now purged five of the six CMC members he personally selected in November , effectively transforming the CMC into an extension of his own will rather than a forum for collective military decision-making. The CMC has been reduced from seven members to just two, including Xi himself.
General Zhang Youxia’s removal is particularly noteworthy. As a “princeling” – a descendant of revolutionary elders – and a close associate of Xi Jinping whose father fought alongside Xi’s in the Chinese civil war, his purge has sent shockwaves through the military establishment. His direct responsibility for military strategies concerning Taiwan, and his previously stated support for forceful unification – declaring the military would “show no mercy” if Taiwan declared independence – adds another layer of complexity to the situation.
The timing of these purges coincides with increased military activity near Taiwan. In late December , China conducted large-scale military drills, dubbed “Justice Mission 2025,” simulating a full blockade of Taiwan. These exercises, the sixth major such drill since , involved naval vessels and aircraft testing joint operational capabilities, and simulated strikes on both land and sea targets. These “gray zone” tactics were intended to intimidate Taiwan and exhaust its defense resources.
Analysts suggest that disagreements over Taiwan may have been a key factor in the removal of Zhang Youxia, He Weidong, and Liu Zhenli. All three held positions on the CMC and were responsible for planning potential military operations against the island. These generals were advocating for a kinetic move against Taiwan in , a date Xi Jinping has previously stated China would possess the military capability to launch such an operation.
Xi Jinping’s demand for absolute loyalty from both CCP and military colleagues appears to be a driving force behind these purges. The removal of experienced military leaders who may have questioned his timeline or strategy for Taiwan raises concerns about potential miscalculations and a lack of robust debate within the PLA’s highest echelons. As one analyst noted, the purges risk surrounding Xi with sycophants, potentially compromising the quality of military advice he receives.
The implications of these purges extend beyond China’s internal military dynamics. The United States and its allies in the region are closely monitoring the situation, assessing the potential impact on regional stability and the risk of miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait. While some analysts believe the purges may make Xi Jinping more cautious about initiating a military conflict with Taiwan, others argue that a weakened and more politically controlled military could be more prone to reckless action.
The ongoing anti-corruption campaign, which has reportedly investigated over 115 senior officials in and punished over 60, serves as a tool for Xi Jinping to consolidate power and eliminate potential rivals. However, the relentless pursuit of loyalty and control within the PLA raises questions about the long-term health and effectiveness of China’s military.
