#Yuanta Securities #Thai Stocks – Yuanta Securities expects 4Q23 BANPU to be weak from seasonal expenses. and power plants in the US fell, re-evaluating the appropriate price at 8.00 baht
Yuanta Securities expects 4Q23 operating results to remain subdued. Estimated net profit of 468 million baht, turnover from a loss of 278 million baht in 4Q22 (high FX-hedge loss and recorded deficit of mining assets in Mongolia), but compared to 3Q23 it will be -78% QoQ. Important points are as follows: 1) Indonesian coal business (ITM) expects to maintain Q0Q as the increase in selling prices due to seasonal demand is estimated to be offset by a decrease in sales volume to 4.4 million tonnes ( – 17% Q๐Q) and a seasonal increase in production costs – fuel costs. 2) Coal business in Australia (CEY stabilizes Q0Q, but still has high losses from production costs (stable Q0Q). 3) Gas business slightly improves Q0Q following gas prices in the market. But there was still a loss 4) The electricity business decreased Q0Q, especially the performance of the Temple I&I power plant after the high season during the summer and the Heat Wave event in the previous quarter, including plans to close for maintenance. 4) Administrative costs increase seasonally 5) FX loss of about 2.6 billion baht from the strengthening baht. (Some of this can be compensated by profit hedging) 6) The share of profit from the coal business in China is lower in accordance with the amount and price of coal sales.
If 4Q23 is as expected, 2023 profits will be lower than previously estimated Yuanta Securities. The main reason is that the performance during the high season in 4Q23 was lower than expected. Yuanta Securities adjusted its profit forecast for 2023 down 25% to 7.0 billion baht (-83% YoY for 2024, despite the current natural gas price). Us. $2/mmbtu Below our assumption of USS2.8/mmbtu, resulting in a profit estimate of 8.5 billion baht, with downside.
However, Yuanta Securities kept its original forecast. Because it is expected that hedges will help reduce the impact of the price of natural gas – coal (coal – natural gas hedge status in 2024 is 430,000 tons and 45% of production volume, respectively) as well as the start of production New mine in Indonesia with high quality coal
Evaluate the new appropriate price at 8.00 baht by reducing the PBV from the 10-year average of -1.50 SD to 0.6 times (originally -1.25 SD) Although the stock’s current price is trading at a PBV of only 0.5 times ( -2.0 SD), Downside is considered limited and the stock has Upside. Win is wide open. However, it can be seen in the short term that the stock still does not have a Catalyst. Also, Yuanta Securities maintains its recommendation of “TRADE” (February 21 earnings announcement).
#BANPU #Yuanta #Securities #reevaluates #price #Thunhoon
