Oil Prices Surge as Trump Warns of Further Iran Strikes & Hormuz Strait Remains Closed (April 2026)

Global oil prices surged in volatile trading on April 2, 2026, after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of further military aggression against Iran in the coming weeks. The announcement dampened hopes for an imminent de-escalation in the conflict, sending benchmark crude futures higher as energy markets grappled with the prospect of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May gained 4.1% to $104.21 a barrel as of 9:45 p.m. ET. International benchmark Brent crude futures for June rose 5% to $106.42 per barrel. The price jump followed a national address by President Trump on April 1, in which he stated the United States would hit Iran extremely hard over the next two to three weeks.

While President Trump indicated that the war would not last long and that discussions with Tehran were ongoing, his rhetoric suggested a continuation of pressure rather than an immediate withdrawal. He attributed the rise in energy costs to the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers and neighboring countries that have nothing to do with the conflict.

Escalation Threats and Diplomatic Claims

During his address, the President emphasized a strategy of maximum pressure, stating, We are going to finish the job, and we’re going to finish it very fast. He also referenced a potential diplomatic off-ramp, claiming on Truth Social on April 1 that Iran had asked for a ceasefire. However, he conditioned any consideration of such a request on the Strait of Hormuz being open, free, and clear.

Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!

President Donald Trump, via Truth Social

The Islamic Republic of Iran denied the President’s claim regarding a ceasefire request. Iranian officials stated that the waterway would not be reopened based on the U.S. Leader’s absurd displays and affirmed that the key transit route remains decisively and dominantly under the control of the IRGC Navy. The two sides have frequently contradicted each other regarding the status of peace-deal talks since the conflict began.

Strait of Hormuz Closure Impacts Supply

Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which typically facilitates a fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows, has effectively ground to a halt since the U.S.-Israel war against Iran began on Feb. 28, 2026. The closure has sent energy prices soaring, contributing to one of the most significant energy crises in recent history.

Giles Alston, a political risk analyst at Oxford Analytica, noted that oil tanker traffic through the Strait was unlikely to resume anytime soon. He observed a shift in U.S. Policy regarding the security of the waterway.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the U.S. Position on what you do to get your oil out of and through the Straits of Hormuz is now something which Washington has largely washed its hands off. This is now something for those who take oil through the Strait to sort out for themselves.

Giles Alston, Political Risk Analyst at Oxford Analytica

Oil executives and analysts have warned that the Strait needs to be reopened by mid-April or oil-supply disruptions will get significantly worse. Stopgap measures, including the release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, have kept crude prices relatively contained in U.S. And European markets so far. However, analysts caution that when those measures lose effectiveness in early-to-mid April, there may be little governments can do to prevent energy prices from rising dramatically.

Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Market participants had braced for a binary outcome following the President’s speech, anticipating either a signal for a war exit or further escalation. George Efstathopoulos, portfolio manager at Fidelity International, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia that the market currently seems to be on the latter path.

Efstathopoulos expects the speech to further fuel risk-off sentiment as investors wait for uncertainty to subside. Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Group, described the President’s speech as disappointing for those hoping for de-escalation. Wu noted that earlier talk about withdrawing from the Middle East appeared to be a way to calm markets while keeping pressure options open, indicating a preference for a pressure-first strategy rather than a clean de-escalation.

Despite a brief dip in oil futures recently, the international benchmark remains almost 40% higher than before the war started. The conflict has effectively closed the strait, choking off supplies of crude, gas, and products such as diesel to global markets, driving up energy prices and raising fears of an inflation crisis.

Brent oil had previously dipped below $100 per barrel for the first time in a week after President Trump said on the evening of April 1 that he expected the U.S. Military to wind down operations against Iran in two or three weeks. However, the subsequent clarification regarding continued strikes reversed those gains, leaving markets in a state of heightened volatility as the decisive moment of the conflict unfolds.