With the presidential election two months away, the approval ratings of the presidential candidates are fluctuating.
In particular, as candidate Ahn Cheol-soo’s approval rating rebounded, unification emerged as a variable.
We looked at the approval ratings and final votes of candidates running for the 18th presidential election with unification and the 19th presidential election without unification two months ago.
First, in the 18th presidential election in 2012, when unification emerged as the biggest variable, the voting date was set 60 days ahead.
At that time, Candidate Park Geun-hye was 40%, Ahn Cheol-soo 25%, and Moon Jae-in 22%.
However, the approval ratings of Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in changed, and Ahn Cheol-soo resigned after the two men’s unification negotiations.
[문재인 / 당시 민주통합당 후보 : 함께 힘을 합쳐서 반드시 정권 교체 이루고 대선 후에도 새정치를 위해서 긴밀하게 협의하기로 했습니다. 부산시민 여러분, 아름다운 단일화 이제 완성된 거죠?]
[안철수 / 당시 무소속 후보 : 새정치를 위한 열망이 얼마나 큰지 잘 알고 있습니다. 새정치 실현을 위해서 열심히 노력하겠습니다.]
After that, Moon Jae-in’s approval rating from 24% soared to 43% within a week, and thereafter, until the election day, it was a close contest within the margin of error.
The final result was that Candidate Geun-Hye Park won by 2,6 percentage points, but it is evaluated that the unification effect of the candidates in the second and third places played a big role.
And five years ago, the 19th presidential election was held without unification after the impeachment was over.
Also, looking at the approval rating two months ago, at that time, candidate Moon Jae-in took first place with 32 percent, and candidate Ahn Cheol-soo with 9 percent and Hong Joon-pyo with only 1 percent.
However, a month before the presidential election, Ahn Cheol-soo’s approval rating surged to 35%.
He closely followed Moon Jae-in with 38%.
At that time, candidate Hong Joon-pyo was greatly defeated with 7%.
However, Ahn Cheol-soo’s approval rating, which had risen to 37%, turned to a downward trend, and on the day of the election, he was defeated by Hong Jun-pyo, only finishing in third place.
As you can see, in the past 18th and 19th presidential elections, the candidate who had the highest approval rating two months ago was eventually elected.
However, it is clear that the unification during the 18th presidential election acted as the biggest variable that made the match unpredictable until the last minute.
No one knows yet whether unification will be achieved in this 20th presidential election, and whether unification will be the biggest variable.
However, a dynamic flow such as unification can appear enough to express politics as a living organism.
It is predicted that this election will continue to flow in the fog until the last ballot box is opened.
YTN Um Ji-min (thumb@ytn.co.kr)
[저작권자(c) YTN & YTN plus 무단전재 및 재배포 금지]
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