XSpring AC assesses that in 2024 Thai stocks can grow to the upside in the range of 1,400-1,520 points, sees downside risks starting to be limited – the government’s economic stimulus policies are helping to support.
Mr. Yosakorn Follett, CEO of XSpring Asset Management Company Limited or Due to pressure from the economic situation which has begun to slow down according to the Office of the National Council for Economic and Social Development has lowered its GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.5% of the original expected growth of 2.5-3%, together with the trend of trading programs (Robot Trading) and short selling without lending securities (Naked Short) There is also pressure due to concerns that the bonds of many private companies are at risk of failing to renew contracts or transfer of investments.
Thai stocks 2024
These factors therefore greatly reduce the investment atmosphere in the Thai capital market. However, from this relatively large reduction. It makes us think that the Thai stock market has limited opportunity to decline. Therefore, it can be seen that the investment atmosphere will gradually improve in 2024. The industries that will continue to grow are the services sector businesses. The tourism sector, the Healthcare and Wellness business group, and the consumer products group with good export sales have excellent growth opportunities.
However, it is seen that the Thai stock market will begin to relax from the above pressure in 2024. In terms of economic growth, it is seen that it will receive support from government policies such as digital policies. A wallet that will inject a cash flow into the economy totaling over 500 billion baht, which is such a measure It is likely to be one of the main factors driving next year’s GDP growth. And if the overall economy improves, the bond market atmosphere, which is another important factor weighing on the Thai stock market, will also ease.
Yosakorn Follett
Regarding the issue of Naked Short which is currently trending, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently reassured investors through a statement and is ready to discuss further strict control measures. This is expected to help ease the investment atmosphere In the Robot Trade case, it caused short-term investors to worry because the trading value of the trading program has increased significantly. It is seen that this issue will only happen in the short term. Because in 2023 the Thai stock market is sluggish. As a result, retail investors will trade less, resulting in a significantly higher proportion of Robot Trade or real trading programs.
“In 2024, it is still possible to invest in the Thai stock market. Because interest rates in Thailand are not very high yet. As a result, the Earnings Gap compared to investing in stocks and government bonds is still high compared to many countries Downside Risk or downside risk starts to be limited, especially when the SET Index depending on the level of 1,400 points, while the SETHD Index (30 Set High Dividend Index) has a relatively high dividend rate of around 6-7% per annum, which is quite higher than the profit in the form of interest on deposits in our country,” said Mr Yosakorn
Thai stocks 2024
Of all the factors, it is considered that next year the Global Revolving Equity Fund will meet the needs of investors quite well. Because it is a fund that focuses on investing in stocks whose returns depend on the global economic situation. The world economy is in the direction of slowing down but it is still strong. Along with the central banks of the main countries, the United States and Europe, adjusting their monetary policy stances to be more willing to participate. The group of cyclical stocks has an attractive price/value level. (Expected to make good returns during Q1 2024)
Off-market debt funds have relatively high interest income (Gross Yield 10%), with many funds choosing to diversify risk among issuers. with collateral in the main fund It is seen that it will be an asset that gives good returns compared to price fluctuations. And if the global economy faces risks, foreign bond funds will be less likely to be negative than other bond funds, especially compared to the High Yield Bond group.
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