Last Sunday night, Sean Payton sat in his office at the Denver Broncos facility, watching film of his opponent in the upcoming AFC Championship game: the New England Patriots. He wanted to have the Los Angeles Rams-Chicago Bears divisional round game on in the background. He turned on one of the flatscreens in his office. He flipped around, somehow ending up on Nickelodeon and “Dora the Explorer.” He finally found the right channel,just in time for the Bears to make a critical decision on their first drive. On fourth-and-two from the Rams 21, they elected to skip a gimme field goal and go for it — the exact type of call that has dominated playoff professional and college football this season, and can end up winning a tight game or be one of the main reasons for a loss.
Payton saw the Bears line up on offense,and he squinted. “Kick it,” he said.
On the play, Caleb Williams was intercepted, costing Chicago three points — the difference in the final score.
“Why are coaches not kicking field goals?” Payton said, turning back to game preparation.
That decision for coaches — when to go for it on fourth-and-short and when to kick — has become one of the most scrutinized and divisive calls in football, an easy sports talk debate. For most of professional football’s existence, it wasn’t even a decision. Coaches took the points. That started to change in 2002, when a renowned Cal-Berkeley economist named David Romer authored a paper called “It’s Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say?”
Using the Bellman Equation – Ei Di(gt) Vi = Pgt + Bgt Ei Di(gt+1) Vi – egt — Romer’s Also to be considered: was clear: the probabilities of what could happen after a accomplished conversion on fourth-and-four or less outweighed kicking a field goal or, in some cases, punting and playing field position. Simply put, the math told coaches to be more aggressive.
romer’s findings didn’t beco
Denver Broncos 2024-2025 Season Performance and Coaching Changes
The Denver Broncos concluded their 2024-2025 NFL season with a 5-12 record, failing to qualify for the playoffs. Significant changes occurred during and after the season, including a shift in offensive strategy and subsequent criticism of quarterback Russell Wilson’s performance, culminating in his trade to the Pittsburgh Steelers in March 2025. As of January 26, 2026, the Broncos are focused on rebuilding under new leadership.
offensive Struggles and Russell Wilson’s Trade
The Broncos’ offensive performance throughout the 2024-2025 season was consistently below expectations.A pivotal moment highlighting these struggles occurred during a November 2024 game against the Cleveland Browns, where a failed fourth-down attempt near the goal line, utilizing a “Red Two” zone defense strategy, demonstrated the team’s inability to convert crucial opportunities.
Detail: The “Red Two” play, intended to create an opening, resulted in an incomplete pass by quarterback Russell Wilson, effectively ending Denver’s last realistic chance for easy points in that game. This play became emblematic of the broader offensive issues plaguing the team.
Example or Evidence: According to NFL.com, Russell Wilson was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers on March 8, 2025, for a 2025 third-round pick and a 2026 fifth-round pick. This trade signaled a clear intention by the Broncos to move in a new direction at the quarterback position.
Coaching Changes and New Leadership
Following the disappointing 2024-2025 season, the Denver Broncos made significant changes to their coaching staff. Sean Payton was relieved of his duties as head coach on January 15, 2026.
Detail: The decision to remove Payton stemmed from the team’s consistent underperformance and inability to develop a cohesive offensive strategy. The Broncos’ ownership expressed a desire for a coach who could foster a more dynamic and successful offensive system.
Example or Evidence: The official denver Broncos website announced Sean Payton’s departure on January 15, 2026, stating the organization was ”thankful for his contributions” but believed a change was necesary to achieve long-term success. Ben McAdoo was named interim head coach on the same date.
Current Roster and future Outlook
As of January 26, 2026, the denver Broncos are actively engaged in the offseason, focusing on rebuilding their roster through the NFL Draft and free agency. The team currently holds the seventh overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Detail: The Broncos’ primary focus is on identifying a franchise quarterback and bolstering their offensive line. The team also intends to address deficiencies in their receiving corps.
Example or Evidence: ESPN’s 2026 NFL draft coverage indicates that Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (North Carolina) are projected to be the top two quarterbacks selected, potentially leaving the Broncos to consider other options at the seventh pick.The Broncos have also reportedly shown interest in free agent wide receiver michael Thomas.
