Addis Ababa – As African and international leaders gather in Ethiopia’s capital for the 39th African Union (AU) summit, a deepening crisis unfolds within the host nation, threatening to unravel a fragile peace and exacerbate a dire humanitarian situation. The summit, beginning this week, takes place against a backdrop of renewed fighting in the Tigray region and escalating tensions in the Amhara region, raising concerns about a broader descent into instability.
The Tigray region, still reeling from the devastating conflict that spanned from to , is once again witnessing heavy fighting. Reports emerging in late January detail clashes between the Ethiopian army and Tigrayan forces in the central and southern parts of the region, resulting in widespread displacement. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, , voiced his concern over the “already precarious human rights and humanitarian situation” in Tigray, calling for prompt and independent investigations into alleged serious violations and abuses, regardless of the perpetrators.
The resurgence of conflict in Tigray casts a shadow over the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, intended to bring an end to the brutal war. The agreement, while initially offering a glimmer of hope, appears increasingly fragile as both sides accuse each other of violations. The current fighting raises fears that the gains made in humanitarian access and civilian protection could be quickly eroded.
Adding to the complexity of the situation, Ethiopian authorities have accused neighboring Eritrea of providing support to armed groups operating in the Amhara region. Hostilities in Amhara have been ongoing since , further straining Ethiopia’s already stretched security forces and contributing to a climate of instability. The accusation against Eritrea, a key regional player, introduces a dangerous geopolitical dimension to the conflict.
Human Rights Watch and other international observers are urging AU leaders not to shy away from addressing the deteriorating human rights situation within Ethiopia, despite the potential for diplomatic friction with the host government. The organization points to a history of failures by both the AU and the UN to adequately protect civilians during and after the conflict, citing widespread reports of killings, sexual violence, abductions, and ethnic cleansing. The current summit, they argue, presents a critical opportunity to change course and demonstrate a commitment to accountability.
The call for action extends to strengthening the AU monitoring mechanism established as part of the Pretoria agreement. Observers are advocating for increased deployment of monitors, a greater focus on civilian protection and human rights, improved transparency, and regular public reporting on violations. The effectiveness of this mechanism has been hampered by limited access and resources, hindering its ability to provide meaningful oversight.
The situation in Tigray is particularly alarming. According to reports from the UN human rights office, clashes between the Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) and the Tigray Security Forces (TSF) intensified on , near the border with Amhara. The TSF subsequently withdrew from the Tselemti area on . The fighting has involved the use of drones, artillery, and other heavy weaponry, placing civilians directly in the line of fire. Both sides have reportedly engaged in arrests of individuals suspected of affiliation with the opposing side.
Further complicating matters, clashes continue between the TSF and a rival faction known as the “Tigray Peace Forces” in the southern and southeastern parts of Tigray, near the Afar border. This internal conflict within Tigray adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile situation, potentially undermining efforts to achieve a lasting peace.
The AU summit is not merely a diplomatic gathering; We see a potential turning point. Leaders have a responsibility to publicly call on all actors involved – signatories and non-signatories to the Pretoria agreement – to prioritize the protection of civilians and fully implement key provisions related to civilian protection, humanitarian aid access, access to basic services, and transitional justice. Failure to do so risks further escalating the conflict, deepening the humanitarian crisis, and undermining the fragile peace in Ethiopia and the wider Horn of Africa region.
The international community, including the United Nations, must also play a more assertive role. Increased pressure on all parties to adhere to international humanitarian law, coupled with robust monitoring and reporting mechanisms, are essential to prevent further abuses and hold perpetrators accountable. The summit provides a crucial opportunity for the AU and UN leadership to demonstrate a renewed commitment to protecting civilians and promoting a peaceful resolution to the crisis in Ethiopia. There is, as observers note, not a moment to lose.
