Nigeria is bracing for widespread electricity disruptions this week as planned maintenance on critical gas infrastructure forces a temporary shutdown of nearly 1,000 megawatts (MW) of generation capacity, exacerbating existing power shortages across the country.
The Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) announced that generation capacity will be reduced by 934.96MW between and , representing a significant 19.67 per cent decrease from the currently available output of 4,753.10MW. NISO has warned of structured load shedding nationwide, with assurances that priority will be given to critical infrastructure and essential services.
The shortfall is directly attributable to routine and mandatory maintenance being conducted by Seplat Energy, a key joint venture partner with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and a primary supplier to the national gas pipeline network. The four-day maintenance window underscores the fragility of Nigeria’s power sector, which has long struggled to meet the demands of its growing population, and economy.
Several of Nigeria’s largest thermal power stations are expected to face direct supply constraints during the maintenance period. These include the 1,320MW Egbin Power Plant – the nation’s largest generation station – as well as the Azura-Edo IPP, Sapele Power Station, and Transcorp Power Plants. NISO also indicated that facilities such as NDPHC Sapele, Olorunsogo, and Omotosho may experience “indirect constraints” due to network-wide gas balancing effects.
Nigeria’s chronic electricity challenges are rooted in a complex interplay of factors, including ageing infrastructure, persistent gas supply bottlenecks, and financial difficulties within the power sector. Despite a national grid with an installed capacity of approximately 13,000MW, actual output frequently falls short of half that figure, compelling households and businesses to rely heavily on costly and often unreliable self-generated power.
The paradox of gas shortages in a country possessing Africa’s largest proven gas reserves is a recurring issue. Experts attribute this to a combination of factors, including commitments to gas exports, pipeline vandalism, operational inefficiencies, and the financial instability of generation companies. The NNPC confirmed that the current maintenance is part of standard safety and asset-integrity procedures designed to prevent unplanned outages, and stated that its gas marketing subsidiary is working to secure alternative supplies to mitigate the impact of the disruption.
The timing of the maintenance is particularly sensitive as the administration of President Bola Tinubu pursues reforms aimed at restructuring the power sector. These reforms include the removal of fuel subsidies and a move towards a more decentralised grid management system. However, progress has been incremental, and public concern over frequent blackouts remains high.
The planned outage highlights Nigeria’s significant reliance on gas-fired power plants, which currently account for over 70 per cent of the country’s electricity generation. This dependence leaves the system vulnerable to upstream disruptions and has intensified calls for greater diversification into renewable energy sources. Industry analysts suggest that a more diversified energy mix would enhance the resilience of the power sector and reduce its susceptibility to gas supply shocks.
The current situation also raises broader macroeconomic concerns. A sustained reduction in power supply can significantly impede economic activity, particularly for businesses reliant on a stable electricity supply. The disruption comes as Nigeria strives for industrial stability and economic growth, and could potentially exacerbate existing economic challenges.
While NISO has assured the public that efforts are underway to minimise the impact of the maintenance, the anticipated power cuts are likely to be felt across the country, impacting both residential consumers and commercial enterprises. The full resumption of gas supply is expected on , but the extent to which the power grid will quickly recover to full capacity remains to be seen.
