The South African Weather Service (SAWS) is closely monitoring Tropical Cyclone Gezani as it moves over the Mozambique Channel, but currently assesses that the system poses no direct threat to South Africa. The cyclone, which made landfall in Madagascar on Tuesday afternoon, has intensified after entering the channel, though conditions remain favourable for its continued development.
Gezani initially developed over the south-west Indian Ocean, east of Madagascar. After weakening to an overland depression upon making landfall in Madagascar, the system re-intensified as it moved into the Mozambique Channel, benefiting from more conducive environmental conditions. Satellite imagery shows a well-defined system with organised convective cloud bands concentrated around its centre.
Current Status and Forecast
As of , Gezani is situated over the south coast of Mozambique and is forecast to move back into the Indian Ocean. The SAWS reports that cloudy and cool conditions are being observed in eastern South Africa, accompanied by isolated to scattered thundershowers. However, officials reiterate that these conditions are not directly linked to an immediate threat from the cyclone itself.
The eye of a tropical cyclone, characterized by calm conditions and lighter winds, is clearly visible in satellite imagery. This central region can even experience clearer skies despite the surrounding intense weather activity.
Valentine’s Day Weather Warnings in South Africa
While Gezani itself is not currently posing a direct threat, South Africa is experiencing significant weather disruptions. Valentine’s Day is bringing widespread thunderstorms to several provinces, prompting the SAWS to issue an orange level 5 warning for severe thunderstorms in Mpumalanga and Limpopo. This warning indicates a high likelihood of heavy downpours, strong damaging winds, small hail, and excessive lightning, potentially leading to infrastructure damage, disruption to informal settlements, and flooding of roads and low-lying areas.
A level 4 warning for severe thunderstorms is also in effect for central Mpumalanga and Limpopo, as well as parts of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). KZN is also experiencing hot and humid weather, while the Northern Cape faces fire danger conditions.
Specific Regional Warnings
The orange level 5 warning for Mpumalanga and Limpopo specifically highlights the risk of severe thunderstorms with heavy downpours, strong damaging winds, large hail, and frequent lightning. These conditions could cause significant damage to infrastructure, settlements, property, vehicles, and livestock, as well as widespread flooding.
In KZN, a yellow level 4 warning has been issued for damaging winds and waves, potentially disrupting small harbours and ports and causing localised damage to settlements and infrastructure between Port Edward and Port St Lucia.
Gauteng, the eastern parts of North West province, the eastern Free State, southwestern Limpopo, and the western Highveld of Mpumalanga are under a yellow level 2 warning for severe thunderstorms, with potential for localised damage and flooding.
Geopolitical Context and Regional Monitoring
The monitoring of Tropical Cyclone Gezani underscores the increasing importance of regional weather cooperation in the Indian Ocean. Madagascar’s experience with the cyclone’s initial landfall highlights the vulnerability of island nations to these extreme weather events. The SAWS’s continued surveillance and public warnings demonstrate a commitment to mitigating potential risks within South Africa, even as the cyclone’s trajectory shifts.
The Mozambique Channel is a known breeding ground for cyclones during the southern hemisphere’s summer months. The warm waters and favourable atmospheric conditions often lead to the formation and intensification of these systems. The SAWS’s ability to accurately track and forecast Gezani’s movements is crucial for providing timely information to communities and authorities in both Mozambique and South Africa.
The situation also serves as a reminder of the broader impacts of climate change, which is contributing to more frequent and intense extreme weather events globally. While Gezani currently poses no direct threat to South Africa, the country remains vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including droughts, floods, and heatwaves.
The SAWS continues to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates as necessary. Residents in affected areas are advised to stay informed about the latest weather forecasts and heed any warnings issued by authorities.
