PITTSBURGH – The Pittsburgh Pirates have undergone one of the most significant roster transformations of the offseason, signaling a clear intent to prioritize offensive firepower over defensive stability. While the move has sparked debate among fans and analysts, a deeper look at recent MLB trends suggests the Pirates may be onto something.
After a 2024 season where they ranked last in the majors in runs scored (583) despite the stellar pitching of NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes (1.97 ERA), the Pirates front office made a series of moves designed to bolster their lineup. Key additions include slugging second baseman Brandon Lowe, and free agent signings Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna. These acquisitions, coupled with the anticipated contributions from returning players Spencer Horwitz, Oneil Cruz, and Bryan Reynolds, project to give the Pirates six hitters posting at least a 100 wRC+ – a mark of league-average offensive production – according to Steamer projections. That’s a dramatic shift from last season, when no qualified Pirates hitter reached that benchmark.
The shift hasn’t been without its critics. The addition of Ozuna, in particular, has raised concerns about a potential decline in defensive prowess, leading some to jokingly suggest the Pirates are assembling a lineup of a shortstop, catcher, third baseman, and six designated hitters. However, a recent analysis of the past decade of MLB seasons reveals a growing trend of teams intentionally trading defense for offense – and with some success.
Examining 47 team seasons since 2016 where teams added at least 10 runs while shedding at least 10 Defensive Runs Saved, the study found these teams improved by a modest, but noticeable, 17 wins year-over-year. More strikingly, two of those teams – the 2017 Houston Astros and the 2018 Boston Red Sox – went on to win the World Series. More recently, the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays and the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks, both pennant winners, followed a similar path, demonstrating significant offensive gains despite defensive regressions.
The Blue Jays, for example, improved by 20 wins last season despite losing 51 Defensive Runs Saved, a decline from +102 to +51. This drop in defensive efficiency was more than offset by a surge of 127 additional runs scored as a team. The Pirates’ strategy echoes this approach, recognizing that in today’s game, outscoring opponents often outweighs the benefits of exceptional defense.
The study also compared teams that prioritized defense, shedding offensive production in the process. Those teams averaged 2.4 fewer wins, and none reached the World Series. This data suggests that while a balanced approach is ideal, a deliberate tilt towards offense can be a viable path to success.
The Pirates aren’t alone in this offensive pivot. The Cincinnati Reds added Eugenio Suárez, a power hitter who is primarily a designated hitter. The New York Mets are banking on Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco to fill infield corners despite their relative inexperience at those positions. And the Baltimore Orioles made significant additions to their lineup with Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward.
This shift comes after a period where defensive metrics gained prominence, leading teams to prioritize versatility and run prevention. However, the Pirates, and others, are betting that a potent lineup can overcome defensive shortcomings. The Pirates’ decision is also influenced by their limited financial resources. Unlike teams that can afford to pursue all-around stars like Alex Bregman, Pittsburgh had to make a strategic choice between offense and defense.
The Pirates’ pitching staff, anchored by Skenes and a wealth of young arms, provides a solid foundation. But even the best pitching can be undermined by a lack of offensive support. The team’s front office clearly recognized this, and has taken steps to address it, even if it means sacrificing some defensive prowess.
Only three Opening Day starters from last year – Cruz, Reynolds, and catcher Joey Bart – are expected to be in the lineup when the Pirates face the New York Mets on . Top prospect Konnor Griffin may also make his debut, further injecting youth and potential into the lineup.
The success of this strategy remains to be seen, but historical data and recent trends suggest that the Pirates’ gamble could pay off. While a strong defense is always valuable, the ability to consistently outslug opponents has proven to be a winning formula in recent years. The Pirates are betting that their revamped lineup will do just that, turning a team long starved for offense into a legitimate contender.
