Dubai, United Arab Emirates – Iran conducted annual military drills with Russia on Thursday as a second U.S. Aircraft carrier drew closer to the Middle East, with both the United States and Iran signaling preparedness for potential conflict should negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program collapse.
President Donald Trump has stated his desire to reach an agreement with Iran, but talks have remained stalled for years. Iran has refused to address broader demands from the United States and Israel concerning its missile program and ties to armed groups. Indirect negotiations in recent weeks have yielded little visible progress, and one or both sides are using the talks as cover for final war preparations.
Iran’s theocratic government is facing increased vulnerability following reported attacks on its nuclear and military facilities last year, as well as widespread protests in January that were met with forceful suppression. Despite this, Iran retains the capacity to strike Israel and U.S. Bases in the region, and has warned that any military action would trigger a regional war.
Earlier this week, Iran initiated maneuvers that included live-fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth of the world’s traded oil passes.
Trump Reiterates Warning to Iran
The positioning of U.S. Warships and additional aircraft does not guarantee a U.S. Attack on Iran, but it does provide Trump with the capability to launch one should he choose to do so. Trump has repeatedly warned of consequences if a deal cannot be reached.
“With the years, it’s proven very difficult to get a meaningful deal with Iran, and we have to get a meaningful deal. If we don’t, bad things will happen,” Trump said on Thursday.
Iran agreed to draft a written proposal addressing U.S. Concerns raised during this week’s indirect nuclear talks in Geneva, according to a senior U.S. Official who was not authorized to comment publicly.
The official stated that senior national security officials met on Wednesday to discuss Iran and were informed that “the full complement” of forces needed to carry out potential military action would be ready by mid-March. The official did not provide a timeline for when Iran is expected to deliver its written response.
Growing International Concern
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk urged its citizens to leave Iran immediately, stating that “in a few, a dozen, or even a few dozen hours, the possibility of evacuation will be closed.” He did not provide further details, and the Polish embassy in Tehran did not appear to be reducing its staff.
The German army announced it was relocating “a low double-digit number of non-essential mission personnel” from a base in northern Iraq due to the current situation in the region, aligning with actions taken by its partners. Some troops remain to help maintain the multinational camp in Erbil, where Iraqi forces are trained.
“This week, another 50 U.S. Fighter jets – F-35s, F-22s, and F-16s – were ordered to the region, supplementing the hundreds already deployed to bases in the Gulf Arab states,” wrote the New York-based Soufan Center think tank. “The deployments reinforce Trump’s near-daily reiterated threat to proceed with a major air and missile campaign against the regime if talks fail.”
Meanwhile, Iran is grappling with domestic discontent following the suppression of protests, as mourners hold ceremonies marking 40 days since the deaths of those killed by security forces. Anti-government slogans were reportedly heard at some of these events despite threats from authorities.
The demonstrations began on December 28 in Tehran’s historic Grand Bazaar, initially sparked by the collapse of the Iranian currency, the rial, and subsequently spreading across the country. Tensions escalated on January 8 with protests called by Iran’s exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi.
The Iranian government has reported 3,117 deaths as a result of the violence. However, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which has provided accurate reporting during previous unrest in Iran, puts the death toll at over 7,000, with the actual number potentially much higher.
Iran Human Rights, based in Oslo, warned on Thursday that at least 26 people detained during the protests have received death sentences, and fears that others may face similar rulings.
Iran Conducts Maneuvers with Russia
During Thursday’s drills, Iranian and Russian naval forces conducted operations in the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean, according to Iran’s state news agency IRNA. The maneuvers aim to “enhance the coordination of naval operations, as well as exchange experiences,” the agency reported.
Images released by Iran showed members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ naval special forces boarding a vessel during the exercise. These forces have been used in the past to seize ships in key international waterways.
Iran also issued a notice to pilots in the region regarding rocket fire, suggesting plans to launch anti-ship missiles during the exercise.
Tracking data showed the Ford was off the coast of Morocco in the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday, indicating it could pass through the Strait of Gibraltar and potentially position itself in the eastern Mediterranean Sea alongside accompanying guided-missile destroyers.
Positioning the carrier in that area could allow U.S. Forces to have additional aircraft and anti-missile capabilities to potentially protect Israel and Jordan in the event of a conflict with Iran. The Pentagon has already deployed warships there during the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza to guard against Iranian fire.
Netanyahu Warns Iran
Israel is also making its own preparations for potential Iranian missile attacks in response to any U.S. Action.
“We are prepared for any scenario,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday, adding that if Iran attacks Israel, “they will experience a response that they cannot even imagine.”
Netanyahu has long pressed for tougher U.S. Action against Iran and says any agreement must end its nuclear program, curb its missile arsenal, and force it to cut ties with militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
Iran has stated that current talks should focus solely on its nuclear program and that it has not been enriching uranium since last summer’s U.S. And Israeli attacks. Trump claimed at the time that the attacks had “annihilated” Iran’s nuclear facilities, but the extent of the damage remains unknown as Tehran has blocked international inspectors.
Iran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful, while the United States and others suspect it is intended to develop weapons. Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, but has neither confirmed nor denied it.
