AI Didn’t Drive US Economic Growth in 2025
- Teh widely held belief that artificial intelligence is single-handedly fueling the U.S.
- Meta's 5-gigawatt "Hyperion" data center under construction in Richland Parish, Louisiana, on January 9, 2026.
- Many economists initially suggested that AI investment rescued an otherwise sluggish domestic economy, as noted by economist Jason Furman on X (formerly Twitter).
AI’s Impact on U.S. Economic Growth Is Less Than Advertised, Report Finds
Teh widely held belief that artificial intelligence is single-handedly fueling the U.S. economy is likely an exaggeration,according to a recent analysis. While AI has significantly impacted market valuations,spurred ample investment-including record bond issuance for data centers-and influenced gross domestic product,it wasn’t the primary driver of economic growth in 2025.
Meta’s 5-gigawatt “Hyperion” data center under construction in Richland Parish, Louisiana, on January 9, 2026.
Meta
Many economists initially suggested that AI investment rescued an otherwise sluggish domestic economy, as noted by economist Jason Furman on X (formerly Twitter). however, a January 2026 report by Prajakta Bhide, a U.S. economic strategist at MRB Partners, indicates that consumer spending was the most notable contributor to U.S.GDP growth in 2025-a typical pattern during economic expansion.
“AI is an significant part of the growth story,but it’s not the only part of the growth story,” Bhide told CNBC. “The narrative that if we didn’t have the AI capex, GDP would have slumped last year is simply not true. Still, it’s the U.S. consumer that continues to drive the expansion.”
Bhide’s research shows that AI-related capital expenditures were the second-largest driver of GDP growth.Between the first and third quarters of 2025, AI components contributed approximately 90 basis points (0.9%) to real GDP growth, representing roughly 40% of the average real GDP growth during that period.
When accounting for imports of computers, peripherals, semiconductors, and telecom equipment-all related to AI-the net contribution of AI investment falls to between 40 and 50 basis points, or about 20%-25% of real GDP growth excluding those imports.