#Currently on stocks – Yuanta Securities is looking at GPSC stocks. Noted at the beginning of March (8 March), the Energy Regulatory Commission presented options for the collection of electricity bills for the month of May. – August in 3 cases: Option 1 The electricity price is 5.44 baht/unit, with all remaining costs paid back to EGAT within one installment. Option 2 The cost of electricity is 4.34 baht/unit, with the remaining cost burden being gradually paid back to EGAT within 4 installments andOption 3 The cost of electricity is 4.18 baht/unit, with the remaining cost burden to be gradually paid back to EGAT within 7 installments, and then open for public hearing on 8-22 March.
The electricity tariff above is based on the opinion of the research department. and most of the markets estimated The latter case is the most likely. Because it is appropriate with the government’s opinion that the electricity price must be stable and not higher than the current period, not increasing the burden on the people during the summer, EGAT received some of the remaining overnight burden.
In terms of Q2/2024 profit margin direction, SPP’s power plant business sees a continued QoQ recovery due to the reduction in natural gas costs following the LNG price in the world market after the high demand season in the western region. Amid a high level of gas inventories as well as an acceleration in increasing the share of gas supply in the Gulf of Thailand. Most recently, the operator The operator of the Erawan Project (PTTEP) was able to accelerate gas production to 800 mmscfd from March 20, faster than expected in early April.
Q1/2024 operating results trend recovers QoQ from rising demand for electricity – steam, electricity sales prices for industrial customers rising in line with electricity costs of 4.18 baht/unit (versus 3.99 baht/unit), costs falling according to the season.
Profits were recovered for the rest of the year as electricity prices reflected truer costs, new production capacity was realized and production efficiency improved. While in the long term growth will follow the expansion of PTT Group’s business, the realization of benefits from investments in India, and the further expansion of renewable energy businesses abroad.
However, the stock price +9% YTD (vs SET -2%) reflects some recovery in short-term profits. As a result, at the moment there is not much advantage left. In addition, the research team recommends following up on the clarity of the Single Fund Gas Measure to see how it will begin to have a positive effect on costs. (The benefits of the reduction in gas costs are expected to be recognized in the past 2H24)
Therefore, in the short term, we reduce the recommendation to TRADE, appropriate price 57.00 baht, to wait for an opportunity to increase investment pressure when the Upside opens more.
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